Predictive Model Eyes 41.06 Support; Duo Geo's Off-Set Rule #3
SYNOPSIS:
MARGET GEOMETRIES:
- GEO:
This represents a high-probability event, whereby two Geos have a shared 5-second point defined. As per the Geo's Off-Set Rule list, this third condition calls for a limited rally to the price level corresponding to Point-3.
- JANUS (Proprietary Pattern):
A prop pattern is lending support to a probable near-term support at the 40.07/41.06 range. This is often associated with a reversal to the levels corroborating those of the Geo's higher levels of attainment, namely along the 1-4 Line.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
On its own, the Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes an interim rallying that is likely to be limited. However, as per the Geo's overlap, a subsequent rallying of lesser probability could occur as shown in the chart.
OVERALL:
In the most immediate timeframe, price is likely to be tethered within a low of 40.07 and a high of 57.54. If price gains bullish momentum, it should break the 59.16 roof and rally to the height defined in the chart near 85.38 at a maximum, or along the dotted blue 1-4 Line at a minimum.
INVALIDATION:
Look for dashed forecast line failure for a general invalidation, although a significant break below 40.07 would cause a complete revision of this Model's based forecast.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - U.S.A.
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
Linked-In: David Alcindor
TradingView: 4xForecaster
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MARGET GEOMETRIES:
- GEO:
This represents a high-probability event, whereby two Geos have a shared 5-second point defined. As per the Geo's Off-Set Rule list, this third condition calls for a limited rally to the price level corresponding to Point-3.
- JANUS (Proprietary Pattern):
A prop pattern is lending support to a probable near-term support at the 40.07/41.06 range. This is often associated with a reversal to the levels corroborating those of the Geo's higher levels of attainment, namely along the 1-4 Line.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
On its own, the Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes an interim rallying that is likely to be limited. However, as per the Geo's overlap, a subsequent rallying of lesser probability could occur as shown in the chart.
OVERALL:
In the most immediate timeframe, price is likely to be tethered within a low of 40.07 and a high of 57.54. If price gains bullish momentum, it should break the 59.16 roof and rally to the height defined in the chart near 85.38 at a maximum, or along the dotted blue 1-4 Line at a minimum.
INVALIDATION:
Look for dashed forecast line failure for a general invalidation, although a significant break below 40.07 would cause a complete revision of this Model's based forecast.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - U.S.A.
-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
Linked-In: David Alcindor
TradingView: 4xForecaster
-----
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Comentarios:
11 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price remains in relative tune with dashed forecast line, however, price only came short of the 41.06/40.07 forecast range in the DAILY chart:
Based on the compensatory Geo Rule, as price reached the 5'' level, then a rally to the geometry's Point-3 is expected to occur with subsequent overhead resistance (Geo's OffSet Rule #3).
If price BACA > 59.16, bullish forecast to the upside remains less probable, but a revision of the forecast would need to be done.
OVERALL:
Price defined a Point-5'' ("point 5-second") as it moved in an adverse excursion against the Geo's 1-3-Line. This calls for a Geo's OffSet Rule #3 application, whereby price is expected to find upwards resistance at a level corresponding to Point-3's price level, namely in the vicinity of 59.16.
In Fibonacci terms, this would represent to the first of Fibonacci's core retracement value of 38.6%.
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Price remains in relative tune with dashed forecast line, however, price only came short of the 41.06/40.07 forecast range in the DAILY chart:
Based on the compensatory Geo Rule, as price reached the 5'' level, then a rally to the geometry's Point-3 is expected to occur with subsequent overhead resistance (Geo's OffSet Rule #3).
If price BACA > 59.16, bullish forecast to the upside remains less probable, but a revision of the forecast would need to be done.
OVERALL:
Price defined a Point-5'' ("point 5-second") as it moved in an adverse excursion against the Geo's 1-3-Line. This calls for a Geo's OffSet Rule #3 application, whereby price is expected to find upwards resistance at a level corresponding to Point-3's price level, namely in the vicinity of 59.16.
In Fibonacci terms, this would represent to the first of Fibonacci's core retracement value of 38.6%.
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comentarios:
28 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:
Price just completed, then reacted to a WW/Geo at its Point-5 (GREEN), corresponding to the anticipated Geo's OffSet Rule #3, which represents the influence of a prior, larger pattern (BLUE):
In gist, the dashed line remains valid, seeing significant undulations in the current price range, as price sweeps positions and prepares for a rallying.
In terms of geometric development, look for the validation of the 1-4 Line (GREEN) - I have not used the Predictive/Forecasting Model for this interim price action, since the overall forecast remains bullish here.
However, invalidation would occur at the BACA < structure low, right below the "forecast" arrow (PURPLE).
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Price just completed, then reacted to a WW/Geo at its Point-5 (GREEN), corresponding to the anticipated Geo's OffSet Rule #3, which represents the influence of a prior, larger pattern (BLUE):
In gist, the dashed line remains valid, seeing significant undulations in the current price range, as price sweeps positions and prepares for a rallying.
In terms of geometric development, look for the validation of the 1-4 Line (GREEN) - I have not used the Predictive/Forecasting Model for this interim price action, since the overall forecast remains bullish here.
However, invalidation would occur at the BACA < structure low, right below the "forecast" arrow (PURPLE).
Best,
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comentarios:
This offers a great example of the GEO's OffSet Rule #3, which I teach freely to the public (see profile).
Thank you for reminding me about this one!
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Thank you for reminding me about this one!
Cheers,
David Alcindor
There remains a high probability for 40.07 to get hit:
Best,
David Alcindor