Gold High Risk to Reward and Probability Short
Hello, I will be explaining my short position which i personally think is one of a kind. firstly, gold is not accurately mirroring the economy (as of that day) so this brings me to two things. 1. Gold is being pushed down by vaccine news and 2. the big long traders who love gold wont be entering until a retest (my personal opinion). now lets get to why I believe this.
1. on the 7th - 9th of December gold has pushed up significantly and went back down significantly, has now made a head and shoulders pattern
2. connecting a trend line from November 30th to present time shows me a retest of the trendline via ema 21 (because pushing through it would indicate possible trend reversal retesting that 21 ema was close as it would to the trendline)
3. gold must retest some form of its lower supports in order to move up to new highs. I'm personally thinking 1770s.
4. Vaccine news simply have pushed the dollars "value" indicating very strongly with the need for golds retest of a low to move higher.
5. many other minor things that are too much to get into
Conclusion - The trade is low risk, if it doesn't move down just yet gold will probably in the next week find its way to the 1770s no matter. and most importantly the trade just makes sense with how gold has been moving recently.
one important thing to say to everyone on gold. trade what's shown not what gold should do, because if that was the case gold should've made record breaking highs already. Thanks for reading!
1. on the 7th - 9th of December gold has pushed up significantly and went back down significantly, has now made a head and shoulders pattern
2. connecting a trend line from November 30th to present time shows me a retest of the trendline via ema 21 (because pushing through it would indicate possible trend reversal retesting that 21 ema was close as it would to the trendline)
3. gold must retest some form of its lower supports in order to move up to new highs. I'm personally thinking 1770s.
4. Vaccine news simply have pushed the dollars "value" indicating very strongly with the need for golds retest of a low to move higher.
5. many other minor things that are too much to get into
Conclusion - The trade is low risk, if it doesn't move down just yet gold will probably in the next week find its way to the 1770s no matter. and most importantly the trade just makes sense with how gold has been moving recently.
one important thing to say to everyone on gold. trade what's shown not what gold should do, because if that was the case gold should've made record breaking highs already. Thanks for reading!
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