🥇Gold Analysis:Long-Term Trend and Key Scenarios👑
🔍Let's dive into today's analysis, which is different from our usual cryptocurrency reviews. Today, we'll be analyzing gold on the weekly timeframe, as this is our first gold analysis in the channel. We'll start with a broad overview of the chart and later delve into lower timeframes.
⌛️As you may know, gold's long-term trend has historically been bullish. This is largely due to the persistent inflation in the United States, which averages around 4-5% annually. This means that the dollar loses about 5% of its value each year compared to the previous year. Since gold is traded relative to the US dollar, it naturally appreciates by approximately 5% annually, assuming no significant global events occur.
🤔However, US inflation is not the only variable affecting gold prices. For example, geopolitical events like wars can drive gold prices higher. This happens because countries feel threatened and central banks around the world increase their gold reserves as a safe-haven asset.
📰Other factors also influence gold prices. For instance, during Indian festivals, gold prices often rise due to the cultural tradition of wearing significant amounts of 24-karat gold in their festival attire.
📣Discussing all the factors would be too lengthy and beyond the scope of this analysis. The three examples mentioned above illustrate that the long-term bullish trend of gold is logical and expected.
📊Technical Analysis
Now that we understand gold's long-term trend, let's examine the chart to explore potential scenarios from a technical analysis perspective. Before detailing the scenarios, we'll review the market's past behavior to give context to our projections.
📆Historically, gold has faced significant resistance between 2014 and 2071, with the price being rejected three times at this level. However, it eventually formed a higher low at 1815, above the previous low of 1619, and managed to break through this resistance zone. Currently, the price has reached the 0.786 Fibonacci extension level, where upward momentum has decreased, indicating potential weakness in the bullish trend. Despite this, the trend remains bullish until confirmed otherwise.
🪄Potential Scenarios
📉Correction Scenario: If a correction occurs from the current area, the first key level to watch is the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, coinciding with 2238. The next critical zone is the golden zone (0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement), aligning with the previously broken resistance area, making it a strong and reliable support zone. Additionally, the 25 and 99 SMAs are significantly below the current price, suggesting a potential gravitational pull towards these moving averages. The initial target for the correction is 2238, with the second target between 2014 and 2071.
📈Continuation Scenario: If the price continues its upward movement and breaks above 2434, the next target would be 2719. However, this scenario seems less likely due to several factors: the price is near a significant resistance, showing signs of trend weakness, it's far from the moving averages, the RSI is diverging after exiting the overbought zone, and the candle patterns suggest decreasing volume, which often precedes corrections. Moreover, a healthy uptrend typically requires periodic corrections to remain sustainable; otherwise, the trend becomes unreliable and prone to sharp reversals.
📝In conclusion, while gold has a long-term bullish trend driven by economic and geopolitical factors, the current technical indicators suggest a potential short-term correction. Monitoring key levels and market behavior will be crucial for making informed trading decisions. For long-term investors, understanding these dynamics can help in identifying optimal entry points. If you enjoyed this analysis and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a specific asset for future analysis.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
🫶If you enjoyed this analysis and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
⌛️As you may know, gold's long-term trend has historically been bullish. This is largely due to the persistent inflation in the United States, which averages around 4-5% annually. This means that the dollar loses about 5% of its value each year compared to the previous year. Since gold is traded relative to the US dollar, it naturally appreciates by approximately 5% annually, assuming no significant global events occur.
🤔However, US inflation is not the only variable affecting gold prices. For example, geopolitical events like wars can drive gold prices higher. This happens because countries feel threatened and central banks around the world increase their gold reserves as a safe-haven asset.
📰Other factors also influence gold prices. For instance, during Indian festivals, gold prices often rise due to the cultural tradition of wearing significant amounts of 24-karat gold in their festival attire.
📣Discussing all the factors would be too lengthy and beyond the scope of this analysis. The three examples mentioned above illustrate that the long-term bullish trend of gold is logical and expected.
📊Technical Analysis
Now that we understand gold's long-term trend, let's examine the chart to explore potential scenarios from a technical analysis perspective. Before detailing the scenarios, we'll review the market's past behavior to give context to our projections.
📆Historically, gold has faced significant resistance between 2014 and 2071, with the price being rejected three times at this level. However, it eventually formed a higher low at 1815, above the previous low of 1619, and managed to break through this resistance zone. Currently, the price has reached the 0.786 Fibonacci extension level, where upward momentum has decreased, indicating potential weakness in the bullish trend. Despite this, the trend remains bullish until confirmed otherwise.
🪄Potential Scenarios
📉Correction Scenario: If a correction occurs from the current area, the first key level to watch is the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, coinciding with 2238. The next critical zone is the golden zone (0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement), aligning with the previously broken resistance area, making it a strong and reliable support zone. Additionally, the 25 and 99 SMAs are significantly below the current price, suggesting a potential gravitational pull towards these moving averages. The initial target for the correction is 2238, with the second target between 2014 and 2071.
📈Continuation Scenario: If the price continues its upward movement and breaks above 2434, the next target would be 2719. However, this scenario seems less likely due to several factors: the price is near a significant resistance, showing signs of trend weakness, it's far from the moving averages, the RSI is diverging after exiting the overbought zone, and the candle patterns suggest decreasing volume, which often precedes corrections. Moreover, a healthy uptrend typically requires periodic corrections to remain sustainable; otherwise, the trend becomes unreliable and prone to sharp reversals.
📝In conclusion, while gold has a long-term bullish trend driven by economic and geopolitical factors, the current technical indicators suggest a potential short-term correction. Monitoring key levels and market behavior will be crucial for making informed trading decisions. For long-term investors, understanding these dynamics can help in identifying optimal entry points. If you enjoyed this analysis and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a specific asset for future analysis.
🧠💼It's important to acknowledge the inherent risks in futures trading, with the potential for margin calls if risk management is neglected. Always adhere to strict capital management principles and utilize stop-loss orders, ensuring that the initial target offers a risk-to-reward ratio of 2.
🫶If you enjoyed this analysis and want to support me, please boost this analysis. Feel free to leave a comment or suggest a coin you'd like me to analyze next.
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