Bullish on Gold and Silver | Long-Term

1 sept

As I mentioned in the previous post on DXY, my bias on the US Dollar index is bearish for the first half of September. Also, as the seasonality of Gold and Silver suggests, September is a negative month for these two cousins. So, in my opinion (not investment advice), in the last week of September and the first week of October, we might see good lows on Gold and Silver.

Remember, we cannot time the market, for now, I anticipate the lows to form at the end of September because the seasonality and the price action support this narrative for me. Also, the market is expecting the first rate cut on September 18, which, I believe, Gold and Silver already priced in that sentiment to some degree.

We can expect Gold to go as low as 2450$ before it attacks 2600$, and silver to revisit the 25$ - 26$ area after 4 months (the red scenario). I like the chart formation on Silver as it formed a very bullish structure on monthly and weekly charts. That's why I also put the yellow scenario which suggests Silver would dance around the 28$ level before it breaks out the 30$ and continue its journey towards 36$.

17 sept

Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado

Yep, as expected silver followed our yellow scenario. It danced "around the $28 level before it breaks out the $30". Look at the body of the candles, they are lined up exactly at $28, right? 😎
Gold, however, did tip its toes down in the water, but it showed that it doesn't want to go as low as $2450. Yet, it moved as we expected. 😉

Tomorrow we will see some crazy moves as there are many speculations around the 0.25% and 0.50% US Fed rate cut. This FOMC meeting is by far the most important one in the past two years. So, thread carefully if you are a scalper or day trader. Just sit back and relax.
I don't like to see the 0.50% cut as it can put the market in panic mode for a while (especially if the US Fed chair expresses concerns about the economy's health in this meeting)