I thought this was going to be a quick and easy analysis but it's latterly taken days! I got bogged way down in the Elliott count and in the end had to strip the chart bare and start again. What you see here is as simple as I could make it. I still prefer the bull count but it's always good to have a roadmap for when you're wrong. But there are a couple of reasons to lean into this bear count over the bullish one; the 144, 169 & 244 EMAs have now crossed bearish on the Daily. Combine that with the amount of time this correction has taken and now the case for this bear count is starting to stack up.
Key Points:
1st full impulse potentially complete
looking for a rally to put in the X wave before continuing lower
There are 3 high probability zones for the Y wave in this bear count
If the X wave only makes it to the 0.5 fib, the target for the 1:1 of X:Y moves lower and becomes part of the 2nd cluster near the 0.5 fib
If this count is correct I would love it to stop at the first target! But keep in mind if this is a completed 1 wave and we are now looking for a 2nd wave low on the higher degree; the high probability zone is between the 0.5 - 0.618 fibs.
The Trade: Short:
Entry 1: $0.0911
Stop 1: $0.0969 -6.3%
Entry 2: $.1083
Stop 2: $0.1149 -6%
Cluster 1
Target 1: $0.0312 1st algo -0.236
Target 2a: $0.0253 1:1 wave X:Y (projected from the 0.618)
Cluster 2
Target 2b: $0.0253 1:1 wave X:Y (projected from the 0.5)
Target 3: $0.0203 0.5 fib
Target 4: $0.0178 0.618 2nd algo -0.618
Cluster 3
Target 5 $0.0109 0.618 fib
Target 6: $0.0102 3rd algo -1
D.Y.O.R. DO NOT BLINDLY TAKE THESE TRADES.
Never Trust. Verify. DO NOT TRUST THIS ANALYSIS.
This is not financial advice. These are just my observations.
Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds.
Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key. Capital preservation above all else.
These analysis take a considerable amount of time, consequently, I'm not taking any analysis requests.
Please respect my time and don't ask; because I dislike having to reject you
Key Points:
1st full impulse potentially complete
looking for a rally to put in the X wave before continuing lower
There are 3 high probability zones for the Y wave in this bear count
If the X wave only makes it to the 0.5 fib, the target for the 1:1 of X:Y moves lower and becomes part of the 2nd cluster near the 0.5 fib
If this count is correct I would love it to stop at the first target! But keep in mind if this is a completed 1 wave and we are now looking for a 2nd wave low on the higher degree; the high probability zone is between the 0.5 - 0.618 fibs.
The Trade: Short:
Entry 1: $0.0911
Stop 1: $0.0969 -6.3%
Entry 2: $.1083
Stop 2: $0.1149 -6%
Cluster 1
Target 1: $0.0312 1st algo -0.236
Target 2a: $0.0253 1:1 wave X:Y (projected from the 0.618)
Cluster 2
Target 2b: $0.0253 1:1 wave X:Y (projected from the 0.5)
Target 3: $0.0203 0.5 fib
Target 4: $0.0178 0.618 2nd algo -0.618
Cluster 3
Target 5 $0.0109 0.618 fib
Target 6: $0.0102 3rd algo -1
D.Y.O.R. DO NOT BLINDLY TAKE THESE TRADES.
Never Trust. Verify. DO NOT TRUST THIS ANALYSIS.
This is not financial advice. These are just my observations.
Technical Analysis is not about being right, it's about increasing your odds.
Be prepared to be wrong. Risk management is key. Capital preservation above all else.
These analysis take a considerable amount of time, consequently, I'm not taking any analysis requests.
Please respect my time and don't ask; because I dislike having to reject you
Orden cancelada:
This count is invalid. I've made a couple of mistakes on this. Credit to @ensky for pointing out the invalid proposed wave 5 ending diagonal.
Ending diagonal:
This was my count in the first wave of the ending diagonal:
This is incorrect because waves 1, 3 & 5 of the ending diagonal should all be zigzags.
This is how I was counting the entire thing:
My 2nd error; Wave 3 can never be the shortest:
Thanks again for the correction @ensky this is an example of why I post publicly, accountability!
Ending diagonal:
This was my count in the first wave of the ending diagonal:
This is how I was counting the entire thing:
My 2nd error; Wave 3 can never be the shortest:
Thanks again for the correction @ensky this is an example of why I post publicly, accountability!
