Although the U.S. economic S&P global PMI and durable goods orders were weak last week, these did not dampen growth prospects. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model predicts that the U.S. GDP growth rate in the third quarter will reach 5.9%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also said at the central bank's annual meeting that "the U.S. economy is stronger than expected." Both the markets of China and the United States have seen positive changes, which is undoubtedly an important driving force for the stabilization and upward movement of WTI crude oil prices. In the short term, there are other supply concerns that boost oil prices. For example, some predictions that Saudi Arabia will further extend voluntary production cuts until October are circulating in the market, and the possibility of tropical storms affecting the short-term crude oil production capacity of the United States also supports oil prices.
The four-hour chart shows that WTI crude oil prices stabilized and rebounded around 78 last week, and have now completed a bullish wedge-shaped reversal, which means that the downward trend from the August high has ended, and oil prices may turn upward. If it meets expectations, the initial upward target of WTI crude oil price will look at the 81.50-82 area, and the further upward target is also the more important resistance in the 83-84 area. If this resistance area is broken, the trend will gain a wider upward space.
And if it falls back in the short term, focus on the support of the 79-80 area. Holding this support area will maintain a bullish outlook. If it falls back to the inside of the wedge, the bullish outlook will be invalidated.
