Fundamentals: Oil prices jumped about 2 percent on Friday, with global benchmark Brent crude rising above $60 per barrel, on support among the world’s top producers for extending a deal to rein in output and as the dollar retreated from three-month peaks. Saudi Arabia and Russia declared their support for extending an OPEC-led deal to cut supplies for another nine months, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ secretary-general said ahead of the group’s next policy meeting on Nov. 30. The pact currently runs to March 2018. U.S. crude’s gains have lagged the global benchmark amid rising domestic output. Oil prices have been hovering near their highest levels for this year amid signs of a tightening market, renewed support this week of an extension of production cuts and tensions in Iraq. However, the announcement on Friday of a ceasefire between Iraqi forces and the Peshmerga from the country’s autonomous northern Kurdish region eased some concerns. The dollar trimmed its earlier gains versus a basket of currencies (DXY) following a Bloomberg report that U.S. President Donald Trump is leaning toward Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell as his pick to head the U.S. central bank.
Technicals:
I have published my forecast of the week, last week on Monday, and I have put a mark on the chart. And Crude Oil price has reached my target.
We have reached our targets one by one and generated quite nice profits.
I wrote few times, Crude is performing very well against strong DXY. Crude Oil price ended the week just at the resistance point of the channel.
54.42 and of course 55.25 – the highest of last two years – will be the next targets in mid-term. If the price breaks out 54.42 faster without fooling around, we may see the price testing 55.25 and 56.30 Fibo 161.80.
Another importing thing is if the market players take some profit from this level or they will wait for 55.25. In my opinion, everybody made the profit realisation at 51-52 USD levels.
The other dominant factor will Dollar Index. If we see a decline on DXY, we may see Crude Oil prices rise faster.
All pullbacks towards 49.60 are buying opportunities. Crude Oil prices will test 56.30 and 57.90 in short-mid term. Trend is the friend. Do not enter a trade against a trend.
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