USOIL: Daily view, linear regression and range movement analysis

30 nov 2016

In this chart I graph the linear regression channels that correspond to each leg in this trend. The trend is mostly up, and it's likely that we're seeing the start of the next major uptrend leg here, since we have found huge buying when retesting the bottom of the long term linear regression channel. Technicals are bullish, without even factoring the fundamentals.

The yearly SMA matched this spot, as well as the lowest volume level since the bottom in oil, which is a really strong support, so bearish thesis had to be discarded. Factoring in global demand vs the production cut, the dynamics of supply and demand confirm this idea, and we have strong arguments for holding longs.
Additionally, range movement, Tim West's proprietary trend analysis and sentiment analysis tool, shows that we had 2-2.3 point drops in RgMov on each correction in the uptrend, and that's what happened here, so, the sentiment declined enough to form a bottom.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

1 dic 2016

Nota

If we hit this level by December 5th, this will confirm the short term momentum. Don't get in the way of it, if it does that.

5 dic 2016

Nota

One more day to confirm daily momentum hitting 53.64. Short term charts are very bullish.

5 dic 2016

Nota

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/8/8pOUhNeY.png

5 dic 2016

Nota

if we get stopped out, I'll reenter. I don't want to see today's bar turn down for the day, before the close really. It would imply we fail to confirm momentum, maybe we stay sideways, maybe we see a turn, either way, we will be able to rebuy on dips, or a different setup if stopped out. If not stopped, we'll continue marching higher, and as a bonus, with twice the size.

5 dic 2016

Nota

-my long term oil long vehicle is OXY shares-
Those I can easily hedge with options and profit from declines, while adding on dips etc.

5 dic 2016

Nota

Tere are rumors of an OPEC and NOPEC meeting next Monday, let's keep a eye on it.

5 dic 2016

Nota

There*

5 dic 2016

Operación cerrada manualmente

I'll exit here and reenter lower if viable, or on a different short term setup.

7 dic 2016

Nota

Testing the first hurdle on the downside, top of the OPEC production cut day. If we close below, and see daily highs below, we'll go lower.
The zone to watch is the top of the cut announcement day, and the mid point of the production cut day.
s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/8/8vqJCKbQ.png

9 mar 2017

Nota

Note how we failed to maintain the uptrend pace, and now we even broke out of the channel. Next stop: 47.54 if it doesn't turn up for the day today.