Oil fooled me this week. The technicals screamed bullish after the monster move up on 11/3. I bailed on my puts and took a small speculative position in calls at the worst time. Yesterday, near the close, I threw the towel in on the Oil calls and opened calls for FB earnings - the only good call on Oil I made this week! Now that we're sitting about unchanged since I became concerned about upside risks for Oil, the technicals look poised to re-test $45.00. Oil has since decoupled from SPX and is once again tracking EUR.
I find it very tough to trade oil b/w $45.00 and $48.50. It's had a very difficult time holding a $48 handle, yet has consistently bounced at $45. I'm going to sit on the sides until I see constructive price action below $45.