USDTRY uptrending again, broader market action likely
USDTRY is unstoppable - so far it feels like a very shallow correction in orange w2, and this is really the last stop before Lira crashes to 20 handle.
Such moves in peripheral currencies often act as precursors of bigger trouble. Here's what to expect soon:
- 10Y Treasuries are ready to spike to above 3% (4..5% very likely),
- Crude still has to revisit single digits one last time,
- EURGBP is ready to drop 1000 pips to 0.76 or lower
- GBP is targeting 1.10.
- EURJPY should start w3 of triangle thrust, exiting a 10-year long triangle.
- EUR is on track to begin fall sharply as of the coming week, and will accelerate after payrolls.
- VIX has already tested 29, the uptrend should resume: w1~60, then w3 approaching 150, potentially even 200 is possible at the top.
Correlations tend to peak towards the middle and the end of the bearish leg of the cycle: expect all moves to happen in sync.
Such moves in peripheral currencies often act as precursors of bigger trouble. Here's what to expect soon:
- 10Y Treasuries are ready to spike to above 3% (4..5% very likely),
- Crude still has to revisit single digits one last time,
- EURGBP is ready to drop 1000 pips to 0.76 or lower
- GBP is targeting 1.10.
- EURJPY should start w3 of triangle thrust, exiting a 10-year long triangle.
- EUR is on track to begin fall sharply as of the coming week, and will accelerate after payrolls.
- VIX has already tested 29, the uptrend should resume: w1~60, then w3 approaching 150, potentially even 200 is possible at the top.
Correlations tend to peak towards the middle and the end of the bearish leg of the cycle: expect all moves to happen in sync.
