The Russian Ruble Collapses: Sanctions & Exports
Actualizado
Fundamentals:
Russia's exports fell sharply after the invasion in 2022.
Russian trade surplus continues between exports and import has fallen in the last 18 months.
"...the limited number of potential buyers for Russian crude and refined products increased their bargaining power, allowing purchasers to demand greater discounts to the global market" (dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/1010).
"Russia’s export revenue from crude and refined products fell 30 percent from the first half of 2022 to the first half of 2023, while volumes were largely stable."
"Price discounts for crude oil will likely persist because of the bifurcation of buyers and the extended distance exports must travel to their destination. Piped gas volumes to Europe continue to remain low. While Russia aims to increase exports of natural gas to China, it will take many years to build new pipelines." (dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/1010)
"With measures targeting Russian exports likely to persist, the country’s balance of payments will remain under pressure, leading to continuing currency weakness." (dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/1010)
Technicals:
Weekly and Daily HHHL
USD/RUB weekly retracement to 91 or 92 38% fib support
Weekly uHd developing
Projection:
USD/RUB will rise to 125 by February or March 2024.
Russia's exports fell sharply after the invasion in 2022.
Russian trade surplus continues between exports and import has fallen in the last 18 months.
"...the limited number of potential buyers for Russian crude and refined products increased their bargaining power, allowing purchasers to demand greater discounts to the global market" (dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/1010).
"Russia’s export revenue from crude and refined products fell 30 percent from the first half of 2022 to the first half of 2023, while volumes were largely stable."
"Price discounts for crude oil will likely persist because of the bifurcation of buyers and the extended distance exports must travel to their destination. Piped gas volumes to Europe continue to remain low. While Russia aims to increase exports of natural gas to China, it will take many years to build new pipelines." (dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/1010)
"With measures targeting Russian exports likely to persist, the country’s balance of payments will remain under pressure, leading to continuing currency weakness." (dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/1010)
Technicals:
Weekly and Daily HHHL
USD/RUB weekly retracement to 91 or 92 38% fib support
Weekly uHd developing
Projection:
USD/RUB will rise to 125 by February or March 2024.
Nota
USD/RUB has reached monthly kijun support + the 50% fib level
Possible shark or cypher pattern developing
tenkan/kijun up cross
Possible bounce from here...
Operación activa
Nota
It looks like the bottom is in after two months of retracement. Technically, there is uHd and a morning star candle pattern at monthly kijun support, which is also a 50% fib level from the range of May 2023 to August 2023.
Nota
Nota
Weekly zoom! Nota
re-newed buy signal for USDRUB. However, I have closed the position flat and have moved cash over to stocks for investment.Operación cerrada: objetivo alcanzado
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