Where does this go next?

THe chart pattern tells us that reversal is extremely likely (and the bottom was already hit and USD is becoming stronger. In that case USD follows the YELLOW dashed arrow

However the oil prices going up are making the NOK stronger and this means that the USD should actually go down along the GREEN dashed arrow and break the last support (horizontal green line).

I am not sure which of the two dashed arrows will be true.

What is your opinion?