USDJPY Insight

22 oct

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Summary of Major Issues
- Mimura, Japan’s Vice Minister of Finance, commented, "The yen’s movements are somewhat one-sided and rapid. Japanese authorities are closely monitoring foreign exchange movements, including speculative moves by foreign capital."
- The People’s Bank of China lowered the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates by 25 basis points each.
- Lorie Logan, President of the Dallas Federal Reserve, expressed support for a gradual rate cut.
- Former President Trump is predicted to have a 52% chance of winning the U.S. presidential election, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen by more than 10 basis points.
- Over the weekend, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was targeted in a drone attack.

Summary of Key Economic Indicators
- October 22: BoJ Core CPI
- October 24: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Services PMI

USDJPY Trend Analysis
The dollar has shown a sharp rise, leading to an upward trend in the USDJPY pair. As former President Trump’s chances of winning the U.S. election increase, the dollar’s strength has gained more momentum, with the U.S. election likely to remain a key factor moving forward. Currently, the chart shows resistance for USDJPY around the 152 line, with a potential drop toward the 140 line. However, as a clear trend has yet to form, we will need to observe further before making a final judgment on the direction.

If there is any movement that diverges from expectations, we will revise the strategy accordingly.