NFP 12.5.24
It’s hard to see but I believe that’s an inverse on USDJPY 1HR. I had to go to JPYUSD to see if it actually looked like a head and shoulder.
Looks like it can go back to 150.8 maybe 151.1
But today is NFP so I’m not sure if it can catapult with such news ahead. Here’s some insight.
The US jobs market suffered a setback last month with the worst NFP reading in nearly four years, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimating that the US economy created just 12K net new jobs in October. Thankfully heading into this month’s NFP reading, economists are feeling much more optimistic on the outlook for the labor market:
NFP Forecast
As regular readers know, we focus on four historically reliable leading indicators to help handicap each month’s NFP report:
The ISM Manufacturing PMI Employment component rose to 48.1 from 44.4 last month.
The ISM Services PMI Employment component dropped to 52.1 from 56.0 last month.
The ADP Employment report showed 146K net new jobs, down from the downwardly-revised 184K reading last month.
Finally, the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell to an historically strong 218K from 236K last month.
Weighing the data and our internal models, the leading indicators point to a roughly as-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 180K-240K range, albeit with a big band of uncertainty given the current global backdrop.
Regardless, the month-to-month fluctuations in this report are notoriously difficult to predict, so we wouldn’t put too much stock into any forecasts (including ours). As always, the other aspects of the release, prominently including the closely-watched average hourly earnings figure which came in at 0.4% m/m in the most recent NFP report.
source: cityindex.com/en-uk/news-and-analysis/nfp-preview-could-a-strong-jobs-report-put-a-december-fed-pause-in-play/
Looks like it can go back to 150.8 maybe 151.1
But today is NFP so I’m not sure if it can catapult with such news ahead. Here’s some insight.
The US jobs market suffered a setback last month with the worst NFP reading in nearly four years, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimating that the US economy created just 12K net new jobs in October. Thankfully heading into this month’s NFP reading, economists are feeling much more optimistic on the outlook for the labor market:
NFP Forecast
As regular readers know, we focus on four historically reliable leading indicators to help handicap each month’s NFP report:
The ISM Manufacturing PMI Employment component rose to 48.1 from 44.4 last month.
The ISM Services PMI Employment component dropped to 52.1 from 56.0 last month.
The ADP Employment report showed 146K net new jobs, down from the downwardly-revised 184K reading last month.
Finally, the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell to an historically strong 218K from 236K last month.
Weighing the data and our internal models, the leading indicators point to a roughly as-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 180K-240K range, albeit with a big band of uncertainty given the current global backdrop.
Regardless, the month-to-month fluctuations in this report are notoriously difficult to predict, so we wouldn’t put too much stock into any forecasts (including ours). As always, the other aspects of the release, prominently including the closely-watched average hourly earnings figure which came in at 0.4% m/m in the most recent NFP report.
source: cityindex.com/en-uk/news-and-analysis/nfp-preview-could-a-strong-jobs-report-put-a-december-fed-pause-in-play/
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