medium term long on USDJPY with probability of further reversal

This is where I am at right now after a successful long and a missed short.

1. break from downward trend line
2. second trend line not confrimed yet, so it looks more like a consolidation.
3. fundamental bullish bias based on positive US' fundamentals, so i think i could bounce up,
although the proabbility of it going down is around 50% since it comes from a downward trend but it broke it and consolidation could resolve downwards.
4. It would have completed the 0.5 retracement.

Operación activa:

Took some profits Friday before market close, still have a short position hoping for the weekend to gap down since in the past 2 months, gaps tend to agree with the weeks trend. Since we come from a down-trend and we haven't hit Fibonacci targets, I'm taking the risk to stay short during the weekend in a small position.
Still hoping to hit 112.485 close short and take a short term long, hoping for more evidence of a bounce.

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um.. keep finding reasons..

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We failed to go lower so far, so uj seems to have its bottom, looking at this trade and thinking it's the beginning of our long.

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Beautiful break. Couldn't have hoped for something better.