Risky Business Short Trade $USDCAD

News is pushing USD/CAD up. So far retraced 50% of the bearish move down last week. My prediction is that price is going to reverse between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fib levels and retest the low the of range on the 4 hour chart. However as there is active news, technical analysis may be irrelevant. If you enter at 0.5 retracement level and set stop at 0.618 you have a 5:1 risk reward ratio, but low probability of success.

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This is why the trade is a "Risky Business" trade. Price spiked up to hit stop loss shortly after posting this idea. However, it looks like 1.2800 could hold so once we get a break and close below 1.2790 we have a bit safer short.