US30 34,500 SWING TRADE BUY PRICE

25 jul

Looking at past price action on the 6, 4 & 3-month chart, I can see the price has pulled back to 78.6% fib levels in July, Aug & September which are the last 2 months in the financial year and 1st month in the new financial year in September then after September during Oct, Nov, Dec price has accelerated bullish with huge engulfing candles (Santa Clause rally) following past price action patterns. Currently with the fundamental condition of the market and interest rate cuts pending for September/October/November Q1 (Q4 of 2024) the following 6 months starting from mid-July 2024 have been bearing as price is oversold in a premium market which isn't giving room for more buyer to enter the market at a fair price before the FED rate cuts and indices and stock start the next bullish run for 4 years in the market cycle, so price need to sell into a discounted market below 37,776 which is above the 4month IMB and 4month bull OB.


From my analysis price would need to pull back and fill the 4-month IMB and draw towards the 34,500 (safe price) area (32,742 is my 78.6 swing trade price) price there is a monthly bullish OB and 3,444 pip of IMB to be filled. I'm not expecting the price to run directly towards this price area but it will eventually get there over time or to 50% of the IMB at 36,400 or 36,250 (QL)