A reversion to mean

4 ene 2022

At the moment, the u.s 10-year treasury yields is traded at 1.6 percent. if you go back over the last 40 years, traditionally the u.s 10-year treasury has had a positive yield over the rate of inflation if the rate of inflation is 6.5 percent then if the treasury yield was to revert to mean the u.s 10-year treasury would be selling with a seven handle or a seven and a half handle which means that the debt service cost throughout society but particularly to the government would go up fourfold. I dont think fed will ever allow that to happen, if they did we will see a real state crash like never before. given the inflation they cant keep it low either. All and all my educated guess is 3%.

Regards:

The economist himself