Bitcoin decopule with US10Y ? Where to look in bull cycle ?

23 oct 2023

It has been commonly accepted that when yields and rates rise then higher risk assets should fall in value as money is tempted by yield returns

This relationship seems to be getting tested as Bitcoin and US10Y moves up together. It does give impression that bitcoin is not as risky as potentially imagined and can be seen as a flight to safety or "quality" to quote Fink.

If bitcoin continues then it is commonly accepted that it will lead out smaller caps in the cryptosphere

Its important to note that Bitcoin (on average) moves first. Why this is important is because it flies in the face of those who say Bitcoin will give less return then 'X' coin because in the very end X will ultimately move up more in % terms. However, if Bitcoin (on average) leads out the rest then the opportunity to reallocate lays mostly with those holding bitcoin. If you have to wait and watch as the rest of the market booms to see smallcap X coin eventually make its move.. then you have little chance of redistribution and any compounding. Whereas Bitcoin holders can take profit during btc move and redistribute into smallcap X coin pre its own breakout and essentially compound growth in that cycle.

Where after Bitcoin?

I believe that safe bets beyond Bitcoin that will move well post bitcoin runs are the sub sector monopolies within the cryptosphere. Coins that dominate their sector. Clear example is Uniswap's UNI.