Monday model for 7.11

9 jul 2022

Model is marked with swing points. I have also added a VWAP model with 4 standard deviation bands versus the price action. Notes on the model show how price returns to neutral throughout the day.

Note that we have had two Monday holidays recently - Juneteenth and July 4th holiday. So the most recent data we have for this pattern is 6/27. Be wary on Monday, as the lack of recent data could mean a significant shift in pattern could be taking place and the model is behind.

Models are built from exported Trading View data and built in Excel. These are intra-day patterns only and do not predict price action.

Happy Trading!

10 jul 2022

Nota

Updating the VWAP model using an updated Standard Deviation Calculation. The first one presented isn't wrong per se, but the the bands are based on the standard deviation for the entire day. This update calculates the standard deviation progressively by intra-day.

12 jul 2022

Operación cerrada manualmente

Post mortem analysis of Monday's Model. I calculated a weighted Deviation Percentage for the day today as a way of scoring the model. The model held up pretty well until 12:30,exactly where a major swing point was forecasted to occur. Instead of going up though, it took a dive.

The Deviation score is -11.91%. Typically, a good model should be within +/- 15%, and =/1 10% by the end of the month. If you followed the model and swing points, then it did provide some good opportunities