The violation of the 3.800 level could occur in the case of confirmation of the war event (Russia-Ukraina). There would therefore be a further sell-off phase that would lead to the implementation of a first capitulation that would lead the Eurostoxx50 to move in the 3600-3200 range. The low end of this range could represent an attractive entry level. The breakout of the 3200 levels (although I personally see it as very difficult event) could only occur in a recession scenario associated with a very aggressive intervention by the Fed, with Russian tanks on the German border.