game plan for next wk

So I totally borked my shark on this morning's call and missed that there was still a wave 5 left in the A corrective wave. Oops.

This chart makes much more sense to my eyes.

Pretty simple: If you're long, dump all positions in the red box and buy back if index moves back above 293 (would surprise me to see that in the next wk). BTD on a retest of today's low or lower.

I'd personally favor the sell side here as I think surprises are to the downside. Anything above the 50HMA (orange line) is a smart short until the index can move above 293.

Personally I think it'll hit 288.25 or so next Thursday/Friday.

Comentarios:

ES has already touched the 1.272 extension throughout the night. For SPY that means the aforementioned 288.3 gap fill. I'd take some profits there, but it feels like the other shoe still needs to drop in seeing how the Chinese respond to the tariff threats. Watch that hourly RSI, it needs to get retested on some bullish divergence before settling.

The fact that Trump felt like he had to go so public w/ this seems strange. If he truly IS the self-professed expert on negotiating w/ the Chinese, then he'll know the value of "giving face" to your opponent. This move demonstrates pretty much the exact opposite and reeks of frustration as opposed to some shrewd last-minute maneuvering as some have postulated.

Let's see how the chinese respond. My guess right now is trade talks are gonna get worse before they get better. I still maintain that sometime between now and June opex we're gonna get a GREAT buying opp and this is likely the start of that pullback.