Interesting Times

28 abr 2019

DXY is heavy in the Euro. Euro stock market peaked end of 1999. This caused huge rise in DXY starting in 1999. Huge rise in DXY keeps WTI & GOLD down like it always does in the central bank era. Europe begins to recover in 2002 which causes DXY to fall. WTI & GOLD rises rapidly as DXY crashes. WTI rises much quicker than GOLD. WTI becomes unsustainable and collapses world markets. Monetary policy causes volatility in all currencies worldwide while GOLD skyrockets and WTI rebounds while DXY jumps around its lows. Euro takes a dive in 2011 which brings DXY back up until 2014. Once DXY is strong enough, US switches policy to tightening as the DXY regains its footing at the expense of Europe. WTI & GOLD collapse with the rising DXY due to tightening. Euro slides as result and then Brexit and European Sovereign issues. DXY gets slight gains through all that. Fed stops tightening in 2017 to give Europe a chance to recover and the DXY drops. 2018 Fed tightens again, DXY rises, WTI & GOLD come back down while US & European Markets are volatile in sync. I think this might explain why price discovery is so challenging these days. What should we expect the rest of 2019 now that we have bubbles, QT, negative rates, and commodity prices relatively stable? Do the Euro shorts win as the DXY jumps or do the Euro longs win and DXY falls? How does this unfold?