Another interesting day today. It seemed like we were seeing big money cycle out of tech stocks again dragging down the broader market but IWM and small caps showed relative strength. We also retested the top of the channel again today but found good support. Strangely metals sold off pretty significantly today as well, but not bonds. Which is interesting to say the least.
This could be telling us something - big money may be cycling out of positions that have been the "safe" trades the past couple months and started to cycle into cyclicals and small caps/value. Pair that with resistance turning into support at $294 we may very well be setting up to take that shot at $304. It would help the bull case if it does turn into a broad based rally when/if we do go for it.
The other side of that is i have the leading indicators wrong and the NDX is just starting to take the lead for a move back into the consolidation channel. The metals sell off and not bonds tells me that the entire market isn't convinced the move is going to be materializing to the full potential. And if that's the case that would mean the market is still dislocated with havens and stocks selling in unison.
This all could be just people closing positions ahead of the long weekend as well and trying to get ahead of the herd.
Nice retest and decent bounce
But bearish engulfing on the daily
It could be argued that we printed a bear flag intraday
/ES is bouncing off its long term trend line..
But IWM finishing in the green
NFLX already printing a confirmed reversal
AMZN with a bearish engulfing
MSFT not as bad but looking like a pivot
NDX with a bearish engulfing
DJI looking stronger relatively, but still hasn't cleared the channel
VIX not giving us any clues
Gold sliding over $25 and printing a reversal candle out of the rising wedge with a HUGE divergence on the RSI
Silver taking a 3+% hit printing a nasty reversal, but not surprising after the past week
Same divergence on the 10 yr but refusing to participate as of yet
With the long weekend coming up i'm not expecting anything spectacular to happen tomorrow. But the facts are we held the $294 level, but big tech is selling off. All targets still stand on both sides of the question. Bulls need to hold $294, and eventually get above the daily 200 MA. Bears have it a bit easier, with just getting us into the gap we printed on Monday.
Everyone have a good weekend and be safe.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion with my own personal TA.
This could be telling us something - big money may be cycling out of positions that have been the "safe" trades the past couple months and started to cycle into cyclicals and small caps/value. Pair that with resistance turning into support at $294 we may very well be setting up to take that shot at $304. It would help the bull case if it does turn into a broad based rally when/if we do go for it.
The other side of that is i have the leading indicators wrong and the NDX is just starting to take the lead for a move back into the consolidation channel. The metals sell off and not bonds tells me that the entire market isn't convinced the move is going to be materializing to the full potential. And if that's the case that would mean the market is still dislocated with havens and stocks selling in unison.
This all could be just people closing positions ahead of the long weekend as well and trying to get ahead of the herd.
Nice retest and decent bounce
But bearish engulfing on the daily
It could be argued that we printed a bear flag intraday
/ES is bouncing off its long term trend line..
But IWM finishing in the green
NFLX already printing a confirmed reversal
AMZN with a bearish engulfing
MSFT not as bad but looking like a pivot
NDX with a bearish engulfing
DJI looking stronger relatively, but still hasn't cleared the channel
VIX not giving us any clues
Gold sliding over $25 and printing a reversal candle out of the rising wedge with a HUGE divergence on the RSI
Silver taking a 3+% hit printing a nasty reversal, but not surprising after the past week
Same divergence on the 10 yr but refusing to participate as of yet
With the long weekend coming up i'm not expecting anything spectacular to happen tomorrow. But the facts are we held the $294 level, but big tech is selling off. All targets still stand on both sides of the question. Bulls need to hold $294, and eventually get above the daily 200 MA. Bears have it a bit easier, with just getting us into the gap we printed on Monday.
Everyone have a good weekend and be safe.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion with my own personal TA.
