SPY/SPX: Next Week

I know the anticipation was killing most, myself included.
So I had to do this right away on close.

I was going to do IWM and SPY but next week is.. complex.. so I think instead of throwing everything at you, I will do a separate post for IWM.


And next week's theme is... the 90s!!! My fav! SPY triggered some 90s dates and when I ran SPX, I was RPAYING for it to also reference the 90s so I could run with it, and it did! But to be fair it also referenced some 80s dates, which is fine, keeps with the monthly theme :-).


Analysis:

I am going to get right into the analysis. Next week is going to be complex. And the probabilities displayed are interesting.
First of all, ES1! data was completely disqualified. Absolutely no technically or momentum similar weeks ever. So, it is useless.

SPY is actually the same, sort of. It identified 3 identical momentum weeks but no identical technical weeks. Of those 3 identical momentum weeks, the reference targets all failed. These were bearish weeks in the 90s (1999, dot come crash, interesting eh?) and one pullback week in 2013.

SPX identified multiple weeks, lots in the 90s and 80s.


So, its bullish?

So, I understand that the probability looks to somewhat favour a move up here. But its complex.
So, usually when I run the assessments I reference these prospective targets that I show you, but I also reference the real time targets (which we will not have until market opens). Up until now, 99% of the time they all are the same. If there it is a convincingly bearish week, we will see real time and prospective targets all favour downside, vice versa for bullish. However, next week shows a big preference for downside on the real time targets for both SPY and SPX.

For SPX:

Technicals supporting upside: 1:12
Momentum supporting upside: 3:8

Technicals supporting downside: 8:12
Momentum supporting downside: 3:8

For SPY:
Technicals support upside: NA
Momentum supporting upside: 0:3

Technicals supporting downside: NA
Momentum Supporting downside: 1:3

So what's it mean?

Whipsaw. Really, if I ever saw math support the idea of whipsaw, it is with next weeks probabilities, lol.

But we can make some logical assumptions based on the projections, which I will list below.

Assumptions we can make:

1. We are likely to start off bearish on Monday. This is supported with the SPX daily probabilities which favour a move down on Monday.
2. We are likely to see upside from a move down on Monday. The biggest reason being, if you look at that reference line on SPY and SPX, this is our 86% target for the week (assuming we open below it). It is at 4097.99. If we open below this line, there is an 86% chance we move up to this target and take it out. If we open above this line, there is a 73% chance we move down and take it out. Based on the probabilities, it seems like we may open below it and continue to pullback.
3. Based on the SPX probabilities, it does seem like we could potentially get an aggressive move up, perhaps caused by the CPI catalyst, with this move faded out the remainder of the week. This seems to be the flavour of the market lately, big bullish moves that are faded out slowly.

What to watch for?

Chart these lines in your charts. 407 on SPY and 4097 on SPX. Remember, these are our reference lines. Opening below, 86% we move up to it. Opening above, 72% chance we move down to it. We need to watch what happens with this reference line.

We will also have 99% targets on the weekly for SPX, SPY, IWM and DIA. The SPX and SPY ones I will post as an addendum to this idea.
I will do an analysis on RUT and IWM and post that on the IWM page. I will post its 99 as an addendum to that idea.
Someone mentioned BA. Haha , I will make a point of trying to do BA this week too, but this is a lot of analyses so we will see.


Safe trades everyone! Let me know your questions below!