A possible scenario to extract money from both bulls and bears

29 mar 2020

This is not my main count but I think it is possible as the market tries to fool everyone. This trajectory would mean that everyone would be onboard the train when it crashes again to start Wave C and thus the big whales would be able to suck blood from both bulls and bears.

11 jun 2020

Nota

Going down? Check the level and the date!

13 jun 2020

Nota

Thanks everyone for your kind words. Some of you have asked me to explain how the levels were calculated. I had posted this explanation in another post but will post it here again.

Well, this prediction was based on the above logic but also how the Chinese stock market behaved when they experienced the impact of Covid-19. I estimated how the US market will behave if it followed the same pattern.

Similar to the US market, the Chinese government also pumped money into the market at the bottom of the A wave. As a result, wave B in the Chinese market retraced 78.6% of the wave A. I assumed a similar retracement for the US market after the FED intervention, which enabled me to estimate the top of Wave B. Similarly, Wave C in the Chinese market was 1.272 extension of Wave A.

I also kept the angles/times of retracement and extension about the same as the Chinese market. For example, Chinese market was retraced in 23 bars in wave B. The US market had dropped 2.36 times more than the Chinese market in wave A in % terms. So I estimated that the US market will retrace in 23*2.36 = 54 bars.

16 jun 2020

Nota

Wave (ii) of the first wave appears to be in progress and is likely to complete anytime now, preferably around 3140 but could go up to 3180.



PS: This analysis is just for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk.

18 jun 2020

Nota

Still expecting S&P to move down in Wave (iii) despite Fed's intervention. We were expecting Wave (ii) to complete between 3142 and 3180. It appears that it was completed at 3167.7 yesterday.
Can it move higher? Yes, it can, but this count will be invalidated if S&P moved beyond the start of Wave (i) at 3225. Note a huge retracement in wave (ii) of C in the Chinese chart posted above.
PS: This analysis is just for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk.

20 jun 2020

Nota

Wave (ii) may now be complete and wave (iii) may be unfolding. Looking for the completion of the first intermediate wave around 2626 (and then a rally back to 2970 in the second wave but let's go one step at a time!).

Here's the structure that I am anticipating. Wave (iii) is 1.628 of wave (i) but could go down to 2500 if wave (iii) is 2.618 times wave (i).

Wave (iv) is likely to be shallow and sharp as wave (ii) is quite deep.

Support lines are in green.



PS: This analysis is just for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk.

25 jun 2020

Nota

I am still following this count and waiting for a drop to 2626...

PS: This analysis is just for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk.

27 jun 2020

Nota

A bearish weekly candlestick this week confirms that the downward trend has eventually begun and the above pattern posted on 29 March is intact.



PS: This analysis is just for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk.

5 jul 2020

Nota

This bearish wave count is still valid as long as S&P 500 is below 3233. Here's an updated count of the second wave - wave c may already be complete or could complete around 3180.

5 jul 2020

Nota

PS: This analysis is just for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk.

18 jul 2020

Nota

Hello everyone,
The bearish Elliott wave structure was invalidated as S&P 500 moved above 3233. However, the original structure may still play out as S&P 500 may have just completed a dip similar to in the Chinese market and could move down in the coming weeks.

18 jul 2020

Nota

PS: This analysis is just for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk.