I used 1552, the top tick in 3/2000 and 666, the low tick in 3/2009. This gave me a fib projection at the 4.236 level of 4416, yesterdays perfect top tick, 4416 on the money!
fundamentals to support this top call:
-volatility has been getting crushed as the market goes up, but in the past week, vix actually increased with each new high.
-bond market rally screaming deflation
-dollar rally saying "risk off"/ flight to quality
-reverse repo market saying that there is a run on the shadow banking system (collateral shortage)
-reverse repo market consequence, close to 900 billion of liquidity removed from market, wiping out 7.5 months of QE
-fiscal cliff upon us, credit impulse is quickly drawing to close, with 1/2 states stopped unemployment benefits, other due to stop 9/11, eviction moratorium stopping in one week, student loans due again
-debt ceiling debate and further stimulus held up in congress - they need a crisis to push it through
-extreme overvalued stocks by all measures
-s/p all weight index declining
-triggered signal of new highs with >50% stocks below moving average
-pile into mega-tech is late bull market signal
-chart breakdowns everywhere, rolling corrections
-dow theory signal triggered (dow transports fell before dow did, dow chart broken now)
-delta varient narrative
-chinese financial crisis (evergrande is a chinese 'lehman brother" moment, can trigger massive financial contagion)
-china PMI shows they are on the brink of recession
those are my favorites, but so many more.
fundamentals to support this top call:
-volatility has been getting crushed as the market goes up, but in the past week, vix actually increased with each new high.
-bond market rally screaming deflation
-dollar rally saying "risk off"/ flight to quality
-reverse repo market saying that there is a run on the shadow banking system (collateral shortage)
-reverse repo market consequence, close to 900 billion of liquidity removed from market, wiping out 7.5 months of QE
-fiscal cliff upon us, credit impulse is quickly drawing to close, with 1/2 states stopped unemployment benefits, other due to stop 9/11, eviction moratorium stopping in one week, student loans due again
-debt ceiling debate and further stimulus held up in congress - they need a crisis to push it through
-extreme overvalued stocks by all measures
-s/p all weight index declining
-triggered signal of new highs with >50% stocks below moving average
-pile into mega-tech is late bull market signal
-chart breakdowns everywhere, rolling corrections
-dow theory signal triggered (dow transports fell before dow did, dow chart broken now)
-delta varient narrative
-chinese financial crisis (evergrande is a chinese 'lehman brother" moment, can trigger massive financial contagion)
-china PMI shows they are on the brink of recession
those are my favorites, but so many more.