The Risk Sentiment Index Breaks Sub 100HMA: Yen Positive

The risk sentiment environment, judging by our proprietary macro risk-weighted index (RWI measures 9 risk-sensitive assets), has now broken below the 100-hourly moving average for the first time since Sept 11. The sharp downward move implies caution around bidding up risk, and in the currency market, this might translate in reservations to be overly committed to play longs the likes of commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) and be tentatively positive for JPY, USD as safe-haven bets. On the big picture, the weekly macro RWI recently broke a pennant continuation pattern, so one must keep in mind that the overall theme is still supportive of ‘risk on’ trades.