Today we will consider what prospects there may be for the SOL price Yesterday, 11/14/22, Solana's website published an extensive update on how much Solana Foundation is tied to FTX/Alameda. We will compress this information into a few paragraphs)
Solana Foundation owns 1mn cash or equivalent in FTX accounts, noting that this is less than 1% of their capital. That is, we assume that the liquid capital of Solana Fondathion is +/- 100mn. - 3.24 million FTX Trading LTD ordinary shares - the value is close to zero. - 3.43 million FTT tokens - value at the time of writing +/- 7mn. - 134.54 million SRM tokens from DEX Project Serum, which Samuel Banckman-Fried created on the basis of Solana in 2020. - value +/- 37mn
FTX and its cryptocurrency trading subsidiary Alameda Research (also co-founded by Bankman-Fried) have purchased more than 50.5 million SOL, which is currently valued at approximately $750 million. However, a significant portion of these SOLs is locked and have a monthly unlocking schedule that is scheduled until 2028. Solana Labs, the company that represents the founders and major contributors to the Solana network, has also sold over 7.56 million SOL (worth about $112 million) to Alameda Research. All these tokens will be unlocked for trading in 2025. Earlier, the CEO stated that Solana Labs was not affected by the FTX crash and has no assets on the exchange.
But the market is not fooled, and Japanese candlesticks show the mood of market participants rather than indicators. The price of SOLUSDT fell by -57% over the past week, while the price of BTC or ETH fell by -20%
Now the SOLUSD price has come to a very critical point. If Solana finds additional capital, it will probably try to push the SOL price at least to $40-50. That is, the blue scenario can be considered very positive and unlikely, analyzing the current realities.
It is described above how closely SOLANA is related to FTX and its derivatives, so the price of SOL will react very strongly to any news related to FTX. Below $13 there is no liquidity for SOL and a drop to $2-4 is likely - this is a very pessimistic forecast, but in the current realities it is quite likely.
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