Charting the Future: An Elliott Wave Approach

24 jul

Technical Analysis of Rajesh Exports Using Elliott Wave Theory

Monthly Time Frame Analysis

Elliott Wave Count and Structure:
- The monthly chart of Rajesh Exports shows a clear Elliott Wave pattern, suggesting the completion of a corrective wave (C) of a larger degree wave ((2)) in Black, implying that a new bullish impulse is likely to begin wave ((3)) in Black.
- The recent price action indicates the end of Wave (C), part of a larger correction that followed a significant impulse wave (5) earlier of wave ((1)) in Black.
- This suggests that the stock is about to start a new bullish cycle, labeled as Wave (1) in Blue of a new impulse higher Primary degree wave ((3)) in Black.

Bullish Divergence:

MACD: The price shows hidden bullish divergence with the MACD, as the MACD line forms higher lows while the price makes lower lows on Monthly time frame.
RSI: Similar hidden bullish divergence is observed with the RSI too on monthly time frame, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

Daily Time Frame Analysis

Bullish Divergence:
MACD: The price shows bullish divergence with the MACD, with the MACD line forming higher lows while the price forms lower lows.
RSI: The RSI also shows bullish divergence, adding further weight to the bullish scenario.

Trigger Point:
Trendline Breakout:
The daily chart indicates a trendline breakout accompanied by a significant increase in volume. This breakout suggests a strong bullish sentiment and confirms the start of a new upward trend.

Invalidation Level:
The invalidation level for this bullish scenario is set at 261. If the price falls below this level, the bullish wave count would be invalidated.

Targets:
According to Elliott Wave Theory, the third wave (3) is typically the most powerful. Using the Fibonacci extension, the 161.8% target of Wave (1) places the possible price target near or above 1800.

Summary
Elliott Wave Count: Indicates a potential start of a new bullish impulse wave.
Bullish Divergence: Both MACD and RSI on the daily and monthly charts show bullish divergence.
Trendline Breakout: Confirmed with high volume, suggesting strong upward momentum.
Invalidation Level: 261
Target: 161.8% Fibonacci extension of Wave (1) projects a target near or above 1800.

The overall analysis suggests that Rajesh Exports is poised for a significant upward movement, with strong bullish indications from both the Elliott Wave counts and technical indicators.

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My studies are for educational purpose only.
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Thanks
RK💕

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