QQQ QQQ/VIX Peaks vs QQQ Tops

This ratio rises when QQQ strengthens & volatility (VIX) declines, a classic risk-on signal

• The higher the ratio, the more “complacency” builds - extremes here often precede corrections
  
• Both QQQ & QQQ/VIX are at/near highs, which confirms bullish sentiment, but also shows that positioning is crowded
  
• If QQQ keeps pushing higher, but QQQ/VIX fails to confirm (flat or declining), that’s often an early warning of exhaustion
  
• Any sudden VIX spike (geo, macro, Fed) would drag this ratio down fast & pressure QQQ
  

QQQ/VIX this elevated often means traders are too comfortable

• Pullbacks tend to emerge from such levels
  
• If VIX jumps, ratio collapses
  
• Historically, that coincides with sharp QQQ corrections
  

With QQQ at ~$600 & QQQ/VIX stretched, market may need a consolidation or correction before higher
1. Late January / Early February 2025

• QQQ/VIX peaked near 41
  
• QQQ topped just above $580 before rolling into a multi-week correction
  

2. Mid-April 2025

• QQQ/VIX sharp rebound high (mid-30s)
  
• QQQ short-lived bounce before a deeper dip into May
  

3. Now (Mid-September 2025)

• QQQ/VIX at ~38, near prior extremes
  
• QQQ at $595, pressing resistance around $600
  

Every major QQQ pullback since late 2024 coincided with QQQ/VIX spiking near 35–40

• Peaks in the ratio tend to lead or align with local QQQ tops
  
• Once the ratio rolls over, QQQ usually corrects or at least consolidates
  

QQQ/VIX is once again in the upper 30s

• Unless the ratio makes a decisive breakout beyond prior extremes (sustaining >40), history suggests odds of a near-term pullback are elevated
  
• Watch closely for a stall or rollover in QQQ/VIX (early warning), a VIX spike (usually the trigger), or QQQ struggling with $600 resistance