Price Has created a smaller Rising wedge (Yellow) inside a Major rising wedge (Extreme) which in itself is extreme fawkery!.
The support of the smaller rising wedge is around 321. If we break the smaller wedge , QQQ will pullback to 313 or major wedge support which would represent a 4½% pullback from 327. In the next couple of weeks I think spy will pullback to 394 gap close, this is also a 4% pullback from 414.
The big sell on tech won't start until the major wedge is broken. This upcoming pullback will not equally affect all tech stocks; For example, you may see TSLA tank 10% while Meta only drops 4% or Aapl dropping 5% while AMD tanks 10%. You'll have to be selective on which techs to short, they can't bring em all down at once or they'll cut straight through 313. I'm sure you've all notice the discrepancy in movements.
If it does cut through the major wedge, then I think this will play out
A 10% drop to complete the head followed by a dead cat before the final leg lower
Here's a scenario where we bounce at 313 and rally back up to close final gap at 332.. this would mean spy most likely closes gap at 423
Here's the RSI
Needs to break 321 like I said on the chart.. then we head back to primary trend support
One more thing worth mentioning here is the line chart! Line charts sometimes provide more clarity then a candle chart. I always double check my setup with lines
When I switched to lines I had to move my trendline support of the major wedge tighter, when I did that, it showed that any break under 320 and ball game is over .. it's all bout where you place the trendline touch , March 10th March 13th candle?
The biggest Tech sectors
XLK / XLC
XLC is topping out inside a rising wedge at last August highs
Googl
Meta
NFLX
XLK similar chart as QQQ.. This is why I'm anxious about QQQ line chart. As you can see XLK smaller wedge is right up against its bigger wedge
Msft aapl
Either way, its 313 in the next 2 weeks and then we'll see from there.
Stop loss 327.50
