9/4/25 - $qqq - How i'm positioned ep 3

9/4/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: QQQ
How i'm positioned ep 3

- it's hard not to notice the q's and the spy's are about 50 bps away from a gap fill
- while i'm a strong believer in the efficient market hypothesis (lol - i'm kidding), with googl's timely headline driving risk higher, today's whatever bid getting bid and "rate cuts" as a known known driving "narrative" bid... it all just feels so roll-over-y
- lulu tn just basically confirms... besides having ms sweeney providing green dillys across basement dwelling "portfolios"... the consumer is, has been, and will be cooked like a road kill goose... and rate cuts won't help
- even my ONON feels like something i need to manage more lightly.
- it. is. just. hard. to. own. anything.

so i just took down risk a lot.

i'm about 30% cash. tempted to get to 35 or 40%
- still packing a solid 55% obtc, but well hedged w/ ibit puts (as i've described)
- onon leaps at 5% at 3-1 (but honestly it's probably too big)
- smlr to play the mstr headline, but it's honestly just an obtc/ mnav arb exercise w/ shorter term triggers and allows me to keep risk on exposure to btc while managing cash
- nxt still a staple, but it's only 5% of the portfolio at 2-1 leverage (so 10% gross). feels like the only one i have confidence in, but it's performed lol. *don't cut winners, V*

so i draw out some tea leaves green lines not as a prediction but as a thesis for what i think could be a path given liquidity constraints and how rate cuts won't immediately help this.

the memes are bearish divergence all over. correlation 1. these things v likely to trigger leverage liquidations all over on the way down. i think funds might be (and should be) willing to short these too which could amplify the tape.

this all just feels like we're in a seasonal wtf is going on.

hard to own anything, even btc unhedged.

20% ytd and always above 0% still feels "good" but has been too much lift and the juice for the squeeze is like hitting a hawt gurl pilates after hour passion project establishment in LA... $20 bucks for the instagram photo. too many ppl posting PnL gainz is exhausting and a sign.

all i'm saying is... make sure you know what you own. you are taking note of all the strangeness around. acknowledge liquidity conditions are not loose and rate cuts won't immediately help (rates are high! people are cooked! we need rates to BURN to really boost liquidity).

finally. remember - bankers like to pay themselves one more time into YE. don't become their exit liquidity here and also their source of assets toward the dippity do dah.

hand sitting feels smart.

V