Paypal - Going Long In a Bear Market?
Actualizado
Paypal is an antiquated business model. The problem is, the Federal Reserve just launched FedNow, which is like a bank-to-bank Central Bank Digital Currency.
Most CBDCs will come in the future, and they will target retail/consumers, and Paypal will no longer be useful for transferring money.
In Canada, where I am, Paypal is already primarily worthless, because the company that handles debit card payments, Interac, set up, many, many years ago, a service that allows us to send money to each other from our banks via email.
Both people and businesses use it extensively. It's fast, easy, instant, and free, so why bother with Paypal?
CBDCs are a problem for humanity, because they are the collar, leash, and chains that enable Party West's implementation of their favourite role model, the Chinese Communist Party, who deployed full scale social credit under the guise of "Zero COVID."
The CCP and its 24-year persecution against the Falun Dafa spiritual believers launched by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999, are something absolutely essential for mankind to reject, oppose, and eliminate.
They aren't things for you to rack your brains thinking about importing so that stimmies can be collected from a central authority.
If you want a future, we need to return to mankind's traditions, human, divinely imparted tradition and culture, and dispose of the garbage that is Marxism, atheism, the Theory of Evolution, and the doctrine of struggle.
The fact that Paypal is being replaced by CBDCs is awful evident on monthly candles, which give you absolutely no reason to believe there's going to be any kind of Meta/Tesla/NVDIA-style reversal of fortune.
But what's really notable about this stock, which I have criticized extensively on Twitter as not being a long, is the weekly bars, since April, actually indicate a long trade scalp is set up.
That scalp setup has not been present for even one second, until today's post market earnings dump back to $68.
The thesis is simple.
Since Paypal has filled ALL of the gap, and over a long period of time, it indicates for lower prices to come, some objectives over previous highs are most likely in order.
The most premium level for this to occur would be the January high at $88.
But a failure swing somewhere over $84 would also be a heck of a trade.
Where to long? Tomorrow's dump may be too early. The most perfect would be $65, under the flat bottom lows. But you may or may not get it.
The problem is, how long does it take Paypal to mark up into the 80s?
We don't have that much time to play with the JPM collar being long 4,200 SPX puts expiring September 29.
And the markets are looking like they intend perhaps one more upswing before doom, which I cover here:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
In any event, markets correcting violently and VIX pushing highs hard may put a painful and abrupt end to rallies across all classes.
But it seems we may have a rally ahead.
And with all the factors combining, buying Paypal between Thursday and Friday in a price range between $68 and $65 is a trade.
If it doesn't go up, then the trade isn't confirmed. But you might have to wait at least a month to see if that comes true.
What you don't want to and can't see is the $58 low taken out.
When Paypal is done taking out short sellers who didn't take profit at $58 and want to ride to zero, I believe the next target is the $45 level.
And then this thing goes the way of Bed Bath and Beyond and Blockbuster.
Be careful. What lies ahead in the remainder of 2023 will be hard to navigate.
And 2024 might be an entirely unpleasant experience for all.
Most CBDCs will come in the future, and they will target retail/consumers, and Paypal will no longer be useful for transferring money.
In Canada, where I am, Paypal is already primarily worthless, because the company that handles debit card payments, Interac, set up, many, many years ago, a service that allows us to send money to each other from our banks via email.
Both people and businesses use it extensively. It's fast, easy, instant, and free, so why bother with Paypal?
CBDCs are a problem for humanity, because they are the collar, leash, and chains that enable Party West's implementation of their favourite role model, the Chinese Communist Party, who deployed full scale social credit under the guise of "Zero COVID."
The CCP and its 24-year persecution against the Falun Dafa spiritual believers launched by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999, are something absolutely essential for mankind to reject, oppose, and eliminate.
They aren't things for you to rack your brains thinking about importing so that stimmies can be collected from a central authority.
If you want a future, we need to return to mankind's traditions, human, divinely imparted tradition and culture, and dispose of the garbage that is Marxism, atheism, the Theory of Evolution, and the doctrine of struggle.
The fact that Paypal is being replaced by CBDCs is awful evident on monthly candles, which give you absolutely no reason to believe there's going to be any kind of Meta/Tesla/NVDIA-style reversal of fortune.
But what's really notable about this stock, which I have criticized extensively on Twitter as not being a long, is the weekly bars, since April, actually indicate a long trade scalp is set up.
That scalp setup has not been present for even one second, until today's post market earnings dump back to $68.
The thesis is simple.
Since Paypal has filled ALL of the gap, and over a long period of time, it indicates for lower prices to come, some objectives over previous highs are most likely in order.
The most premium level for this to occur would be the January high at $88.
But a failure swing somewhere over $84 would also be a heck of a trade.
Where to long? Tomorrow's dump may be too early. The most perfect would be $65, under the flat bottom lows. But you may or may not get it.
The problem is, how long does it take Paypal to mark up into the 80s?
We don't have that much time to play with the JPM collar being long 4,200 SPX puts expiring September 29.
And the markets are looking like they intend perhaps one more upswing before doom, which I cover here:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
In any event, markets correcting violently and VIX pushing highs hard may put a painful and abrupt end to rallies across all classes.
But it seems we may have a rally ahead.
And with all the factors combining, buying Paypal between Thursday and Friday in a price range between $68 and $65 is a trade.
If it doesn't go up, then the trade isn't confirmed. But you might have to wait at least a month to see if that comes true.
What you don't want to and can't see is the $58 low taken out.
When Paypal is done taking out short sellers who didn't take profit at $58 and want to ride to zero, I believe the next target is the $45 level.
And then this thing goes the way of Bed Bath and Beyond and Blockbuster.
Be careful. What lies ahead in the remainder of 2023 will be hard to navigate.
And 2024 might be an entirely unpleasant experience for all.
Nota
Paypal taking $65 already is actually interesting.In terms of potential longs, Non-farm Payrolls is tomorrow and may be a very volatile day. It may get a lot closer to the lows.
Also, there is a risk that even though the gap grind on the weekly was both long and deep, it was simply refilling a liquidity void, and this trade is no long at all.
Has a lot to do with what the overall indexes do by August 18.
Nota
At this point it looks like the bull case for Paypal is higher lows at $59.80~.Nota
It's painful to say it, but the question you have to ask yourself on Paypal is, was $76 the top?"Why am I trying to go long on a shitco, because someone on social media told me it would moon?"
What is bullish here?
Nota
Paypal took the bottom on market open and is showing signs of life.But it's important to keep in mind that the bounce should also be thought of as a potential rip to sell.
Lower prices from here are really a pretty bad sign for any kind of upside target.
Publicaciones relacionadas
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones que ofrecemos, no implican ni constituyen un asesoramiento financiero, ni de inversión, trading o cualquier otro tipo de consejo o recomendación emitida o respaldada por TradingView. Puede obtener información adicional en las Condiciones de uso.