NZD - an event-driven tactical play on the RBNZ meeting
The RBNZ meeting could be also one to put on the radar – the market prices 44bp of hikes here, and NZD implied volatility is priced higher than other FX pairs. While inflation is rampant in NZ, the announcement of the state-wide emergency in response to Cyclone Gabrielle could see the RBNZ look to reduce the blow to households, such as we saw for the support to the Christchurch earthquake. I am not sure that hits home and households feel the support on a below-expectations 25bp hike - so it’s either 50bp (consensus) and be the bad guys (but they have a job to do right?) or leave rates unchanged in my mind – the latter an outcome that could mean the NZD gets smacked off the bat – a compelling risk-reward event-driven view here when only 1 of 22 economists are calling for it, although I’d be getting out quickly on that.
A big double bottom in play - while the reaction to the RBNZ could be quick, as the statement will likely read hawkish, if price does below the neckline it could lead to better bear trending conditions.
A big double bottom in play - while the reaction to the RBNZ could be quick, as the statement will likely read hawkish, if price does below the neckline it could lead to better bear trending conditions.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones que ofrecemos, no implican ni constituyen un asesoramiento financiero, ni de inversión, trading o cualquier otro tipo de consejo o recomendación emitida o respaldada por TradingView. Puede obtener información adicional en las Condiciones de uso.