NZD/JPY SHORT

28 feb 2016

On the daily charts we have seen bullish momentum test the resistance level of 76.046 4 times over the period of last week, this level also coincides with my 25% fib level (75.783) hinting the bullish pressure is coming to an end, with fridays close at 75.501 with an extensive false break towards the upside leaving friday's daily range at a high of 76.605 on top of that we see the close below the 25% fib level at a value of 75.501 further cementing my convictions for a short towards the the trend line which intersects my band of resistance levels at 73.514-73.244 this will be my target for this trade.and depending on the fundamentals i will then enter long towards that major resistance level (76.046) for the potential bull run. with my final target at the descending trend line. I also have US crude oil as a leading indicator to help me gauge the strength in JPY appreciation against the NZD, oil has failed three times to close above the key level of 33.24 after establishing a new lows at the 27.08-26.00 in February, price on the daily charts and the RSI indicates that this bull run has come to an end and that price may establish new lows as the oil situation lacks clarity and direction in regards to curbing output and in effect stabilisation of the oil markets due to geo-political events. Also price on oil has tested a descending trend line taken from the June 2014 highs meeting at the highs of both October and November. In this climate of uncertainty for the outlook of oil we can expect the yen to appreciate further against other majors due to the technicals shown in oil and the recent information given to us via news sources of the BoJ's willingness not to intervene in regards to devaluing the yen any further via means of increased monetary stimulus with the BoJ to meet on 14/02/2016 and the RBNZ scheduled to meet on the 9th i think we can see the yen push for new highs against its majors as this weeks economic calendar carries little event risk for both these economies with impending bank talks due in the latter weeks ahead. i will be looking to enter at the highest price possible at the 60% fib value of fridays range around the 76.046 area if the technicals confirm however i will be watching closely to get the best entry for this pair as it can be quite a fast mover.