NAS/QQQ Weekend Look (Mar21-25)
NAS/QQQ WEEKEND Mar 21-25
Here is the weekend look at the NASDAQ 100 for the week of Mar21-25. Last week after an initial sell off that briefly undercut the Feb 24th low the Nasdaq retraced almost 11%, closing out the week +8.46% and making for one of largest 4 day rallies in history. Price broke through the downward trendline & the 21ema closing inside the neutral and just below the 55 ema.
The gains came despite the first Fed rate hike in years, a brutal war in Ukraine raging, covid surging in China & inflationary pressures rising dramatically. Many may see the market reversal as ridiculous in the face of such bearish news, but markets oscillate between extremes and sharp reversals are the result of price getting too stretched in one direction. In this case price had become overextend to the downside. Shorts covered and longs piled on. The effects of these moves were exponentially magnified due to the massive increase in option trading in the post covid era. Friday was also quad option expiry which amplified volatility as trillions in premium became due.
Going into this week the NAS sits between 21ema support and the HTF neutral as resistance. 7MESH rules still apply. Below the neutral = bearish. Above the neutral = bullish and within the neutral = sideways. Currently price sits just inside the bottom of the neutral box. Price will either reject at this point and fall back down below the neutral or push through it to the top of the neutral. The target to the downside would be the 21ema. The target to the upside is the top of the neutral and the 200 sma.
At this point my bias remains bearish despite the massive move last week. My reasons for remaining bearish include:
·Price still at the bottom of the neutral
·Price is below the 55ema
·Last week's move likely exaggerated due to option expiry
·Many long traders will likely wait for retest of 21ema and trendline before entry.
Above the 55ema I will become more positive. Above the neutral my bias would flip back to bullish.
Sideways price action at this point is also a strong possibility.
Last week I posted a ton of updates as the price action played out. If you are interest in what I was watching intraday go back and check out last weeks post or follow me on Twitter.
Weekly Events>>>
Monday... Powell speaks (9am)
Tuesday... ECB & Fed Heads speak
Wednesday... Powell speaks (5am), New homes sales & EIA crude inventories
Thursday... Jobless Claims & Durable Goods
Friday... University of Mich Sentiment
Notable Earnings>>>
Monday... NKE, TME
Tuesday... HUYA, CCL, ADBE, PAGS
Wednesday... GIS, WGO, KBH
Thursday... DRI, NIO
Bullish Notes>>>
Price above 21ema
Rate decision out of the way
Many Furus now bullish and pumping
Potential Ukraine/Russia truce
China supports NATO
Oil prices continue to fall easing inflation fears
Bearish Notes>>>
Price at bottom of neutral & below 55ema
10 year yields continue to rise
Powell makes hawkish remarks
Ukraine/Russia conflict worsens
China supports Russian and/or threatens Taiwan
Oil prices resume uptrend
21ema does not hold as support
Here is the weekend look at the NASDAQ 100 for the week of Mar21-25. Last week after an initial sell off that briefly undercut the Feb 24th low the Nasdaq retraced almost 11%, closing out the week +8.46% and making for one of largest 4 day rallies in history. Price broke through the downward trendline & the 21ema closing inside the neutral and just below the 55 ema.
The gains came despite the first Fed rate hike in years, a brutal war in Ukraine raging, covid surging in China & inflationary pressures rising dramatically. Many may see the market reversal as ridiculous in the face of such bearish news, but markets oscillate between extremes and sharp reversals are the result of price getting too stretched in one direction. In this case price had become overextend to the downside. Shorts covered and longs piled on. The effects of these moves were exponentially magnified due to the massive increase in option trading in the post covid era. Friday was also quad option expiry which amplified volatility as trillions in premium became due.
Going into this week the NAS sits between 21ema support and the HTF neutral as resistance. 7MESH rules still apply. Below the neutral = bearish. Above the neutral = bullish and within the neutral = sideways. Currently price sits just inside the bottom of the neutral box. Price will either reject at this point and fall back down below the neutral or push through it to the top of the neutral. The target to the downside would be the 21ema. The target to the upside is the top of the neutral and the 200 sma.
At this point my bias remains bearish despite the massive move last week. My reasons for remaining bearish include:
·Price still at the bottom of the neutral
·Price is below the 55ema
·Last week's move likely exaggerated due to option expiry
·Many long traders will likely wait for retest of 21ema and trendline before entry.
Above the 55ema I will become more positive. Above the neutral my bias would flip back to bullish.
Sideways price action at this point is also a strong possibility.
Last week I posted a ton of updates as the price action played out. If you are interest in what I was watching intraday go back and check out last weeks post or follow me on Twitter.
Weekly Events>>>
Monday... Powell speaks (9am)
Tuesday... ECB & Fed Heads speak
Wednesday... Powell speaks (5am), New homes sales & EIA crude inventories
Thursday... Jobless Claims & Durable Goods
Friday... University of Mich Sentiment
Notable Earnings>>>
Monday... NKE, TME
Tuesday... HUYA, CCL, ADBE, PAGS
Wednesday... GIS, WGO, KBH
Thursday... DRI, NIO
Bullish Notes>>>
Price above 21ema
Rate decision out of the way
Many Furus now bullish and pumping
Potential Ukraine/Russia truce
China supports NATO
Oil prices continue to fall easing inflation fears
Bearish Notes>>>
Price at bottom of neutral & below 55ema
10 year yields continue to rise
Powell makes hawkish remarks
Ukraine/Russia conflict worsens
China supports Russian and/or threatens Taiwan
Oil prices resume uptrend
21ema does not hold as support
Comentarios:
Found resistance at the 55ema. Watching for pull back to the bottom of the neutral (red box). Below that the target would be the 21ema.
Comentarios:
Tested the bottom of the neutral and bounced sharply. This is positive. Need to see a break above the 55 ema not for bullish continuation.
Comentarios:
Rejected a 3rd time off the 55ema and then proceeded to bounce off the bottom of the neutral once more. So price is stuck between these two level for now. Below the recent low I will target the 21ema. Above todays high I will target the next pivot and then the 200sma.
Comentarios:
Broke to the upside above 55 ema. Coming into next resistance at the pivot around 14640
Comentarios:
Here's a bit of a brag post to show my levels in action this week so far. All levels posted every Sunday night before the trading week begins . Also an example of why I use the 21/ 55 emas to compliment my fib analysis. Precise and effective. Hope you guys find this helpful.
Comentarios:
Worked its way above pivot resistance. Clear run to 15000 now, but vulnerable to any news surprise given the massive move off the lows. 200 sma lines up with the top of the neutral and the next pivot. Always interesting how these things mesh.
