13th Nov ’23 - Nifty PostMortem - Just like a DIWALI rocket ⬆️⬇️
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: ”For monday, I wish to continue with the neutral stance — but a slight bias to the bullish side after seeing today’s momentum. The first level to watch will be 19562 on the upside and 19310 downside.”
On the 5mts TF, I have encircled 3 regions.
Sunday’s trade appears to be a blip. Just like the fireworks that we light on Diwali - they go up, illuminate, and then fall back to the ground. Our market was like that rocket on Sunday. A mega gap up, island day formation, and then back to earth after today’s close. Even I did not anticipate the neutral call to work out so perfectly.
Few things have changed after today’s price action. 19446 support/resistance is proving to be more important than thought earlier. Today between 10.05 to 10.20, I really thought we would break it for the greater good and go back to bearish mode. Unfortunately, all the action stopped after the first hour of trade today and we were perfectly directionless for the remainder of the day.
On the 1hr chart, today’s 2nd hourly candle stands out. It broke through the 19446 support but failed to gather steam. The depth of that candle should not be taken lightly, I am seriously considering looking out for bearish opportunities as they uncover. Since its a holiday tomorrow, the view for Wednesday could be a bit complicated. Ideally, I wish to maintain the neutral stance as nothing has changed but how
SPX behaves today and tomorrow also has to be considered.
The first checkbox to tick is a rising VIX, only then a down move can be justified. The options premiums as it stands are not worth selling. A bit of uncertainty and panic will drive up the premiums & I am ready to wait.
Recap from yesterday: ”For monday, I wish to continue with the neutral stance — but a slight bias to the bullish side after seeing today’s momentum. The first level to watch will be 19562 on the upside and 19310 downside.”
On the 5mts TF, I have encircled 3 regions.
- The close on Friday.
- The Diwali Muhurat trading on Sunday.
- The close of today.
Sunday’s trade appears to be a blip. Just like the fireworks that we light on Diwali - they go up, illuminate, and then fall back to the ground. Our market was like that rocket on Sunday. A mega gap up, island day formation, and then back to earth after today’s close. Even I did not anticipate the neutral call to work out so perfectly.
Few things have changed after today’s price action. 19446 support/resistance is proving to be more important than thought earlier. Today between 10.05 to 10.20, I really thought we would break it for the greater good and go back to bearish mode. Unfortunately, all the action stopped after the first hour of trade today and we were perfectly directionless for the remainder of the day.
On the 1hr chart, today’s 2nd hourly candle stands out. It broke through the 19446 support but failed to gather steam. The depth of that candle should not be taken lightly, I am seriously considering looking out for bearish opportunities as they uncover. Since its a holiday tomorrow, the view for Wednesday could be a bit complicated. Ideally, I wish to maintain the neutral stance as nothing has changed but how
SPX behaves today and tomorrow also has to be considered.The first checkbox to tick is a rising VIX, only then a down move can be justified. The options premiums as it stands are not worth selling. A bit of uncertainty and panic will drive up the premiums & I am ready to wait.
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