Indices end in good green despite ups and downs
NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 01-12-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17104.40
H 17213.05
L 17064.25
C 17166.90
EOD +183.70 points / +1.08%
India VIX 19.45/-8.12%
SGX Nifty 01-12-21 @ 17455h = +9 points
FII DII = Not yet available
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty opened with a 100+ points gap-up and it was able to sustain the momentum for the first few minutes and then the usual sell-off kicked-in.
However, this time the downfall halted just around the open price and then Nifty managed to cross 17200 in a sustained manner.
However, as witnessed yesterday, the 17200+ levels offered a solid resistance and the Nifty yet again fell 100+ points and made a new low at 17064.
This was immediately bought in to and then Nifty made a choppy recovery but failed to end above 17200.
On the daily charts, Nifty has left behind a gap as it was able to sustain the levels above 17050.
Both the indices have made a higher low, but lower highs.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 95
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 18
Net = +77
POSITIVES
OHLC of Nifty is above 17050.
Nifty ended above 17150.
Bank Nifty made a strong recovery today and appeared stronger than Nifty and managed to close above 36300.
All Bank Nifty family members except Kotak Bank ended the day in the green.
India Vix has fallen 8%+.
Reliance, ICICI Bank, and HDFC have recovered from the selling spree and if HDFC Bank also recovers and steadies above 1530, it would add to the positivity.
NEGATIVES
Infosys, HDFC Bank, and Kotak Bank have not been able to end with strong positivity. As long as these scrips do not end in a good amount of green, the Indices may keep facing resistances and selling pressure.
17200 on Nifty and 36450 on Bank Nifty are hard to cross - this is despite the overall sentiment being positive.
TRADING RANGE FOR 02 Dec 21
Nifty Support = 16700-800
Nifty Resistance = 17200 and above until 17500 is taken out on a closing basis.
Bank Nifty Support = 35500-700
Bank Nifty Resistance = 36400-600-800-37000
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
The indices have left behind a gap that has not yet been filled between the close of 30-11 and today. Considering that the market is still weak, this may well get filled soon and it is better if it does so as then only the remainder of the weakness would go away.
The global markets and therefore India seems to have discounted the impacts of Omicron and that is why Divis Labs and Cipla feature as the draggers of Nifty.
FIIs may have bought today but the ferocity in the moves and the wide range was missing and most of the gains have been recorded on account of the gap up in the Indices. The range of the indices was not that wide as India Vix has fallen significantly.
The 1330h candle in Bank Nifty on 5 minutes chart was unnerving - I was holding 35900 CE and it shook me out while exiting the long and as it abruptly recovered, my reentry in the same CE was out by 30 points - such fast were the moves. This despite India Vix being down. This was possibly the algo at play to wipe out basket orders or to execute and settle the basket orders. We may never know until we become witness to such large moves.
EVen though India Vix has fallen significantly, the market was quite choppy especially Nifty as it kept going up and down. I do not understand how this could happen but not everything should be reasoned out. Let it do what it is supposed to do.
What do you feel about this?
Here is the video link --
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
1-12-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17104.40
H 17213.05
L 17064.25
C 17166.90
EOD +183.70 points / +1.08%
India VIX 19.45/-8.12%
SGX Nifty 01-12-21 @ 17455h = +9 points
FII DII = Not yet available
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty opened with a 100+ points gap-up and it was able to sustain the momentum for the first few minutes and then the usual sell-off kicked-in.
However, this time the downfall halted just around the open price and then Nifty managed to cross 17200 in a sustained manner.
However, as witnessed yesterday, the 17200+ levels offered a solid resistance and the Nifty yet again fell 100+ points and made a new low at 17064.
This was immediately bought in to and then Nifty made a choppy recovery but failed to end above 17200.
On the daily charts, Nifty has left behind a gap as it was able to sustain the levels above 17050.
Both the indices have made a higher low, but lower highs.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 95
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 18
Net = +77
POSITIVES
OHLC of Nifty is above 17050.
Nifty ended above 17150.
Bank Nifty made a strong recovery today and appeared stronger than Nifty and managed to close above 36300.
All Bank Nifty family members except Kotak Bank ended the day in the green.
India Vix has fallen 8%+.
Reliance, ICICI Bank, and HDFC have recovered from the selling spree and if HDFC Bank also recovers and steadies above 1530, it would add to the positivity.
NEGATIVES
Infosys, HDFC Bank, and Kotak Bank have not been able to end with strong positivity. As long as these scrips do not end in a good amount of green, the Indices may keep facing resistances and selling pressure.
17200 on Nifty and 36450 on Bank Nifty are hard to cross - this is despite the overall sentiment being positive.
TRADING RANGE FOR 02 Dec 21
Nifty Support = 16700-800
Nifty Resistance = 17200 and above until 17500 is taken out on a closing basis.
Bank Nifty Support = 35500-700
Bank Nifty Resistance = 36400-600-800-37000
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
The indices have left behind a gap that has not yet been filled between the close of 30-11 and today. Considering that the market is still weak, this may well get filled soon and it is better if it does so as then only the remainder of the weakness would go away.
The global markets and therefore India seems to have discounted the impacts of Omicron and that is why Divis Labs and Cipla feature as the draggers of Nifty.
FIIs may have bought today but the ferocity in the moves and the wide range was missing and most of the gains have been recorded on account of the gap up in the Indices. The range of the indices was not that wide as India Vix has fallen significantly.
The 1330h candle in Bank Nifty on 5 minutes chart was unnerving - I was holding 35900 CE and it shook me out while exiting the long and as it abruptly recovered, my reentry in the same CE was out by 30 points - such fast were the moves. This despite India Vix being down. This was possibly the algo at play to wipe out basket orders or to execute and settle the basket orders. We may never know until we become witness to such large moves.
EVen though India Vix has fallen significantly, the market was quite choppy especially Nifty as it kept going up and down. I do not understand how this could happen but not everything should be reasoned out. Let it do what it is supposed to do.
What do you feel about this?
Here is the video link --
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
1-12-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
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