26 Feb ’24 — Except Energy, all the other sectors down in N50?
Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
Recap from yesterday: “We are not suggesting that all “roads lead to Rome theory” i.e. everything is bullish, but the probability of things going up seems higher than cutting through the supports of 22051 & 21913. You know us, the moment the supports are broken, we will exit the bullish position at a loss and go neutral.”
4mts chart
Almost all the sectors looked weak today, NiftyIT was the main villain - at a point, it was like 1.7% down. The energy sector ended the day with some meaningful gains, excluding that then everything was either in RED or flat. Interestingly, Nifty did not touch or break the 22051 support level today and due to that we do not think a status change is required.
The near ATM CALLs side had exorbitant premiums last week, most analysts would have even extrapolated to have a 22500+ close this expiry. Today’s price action ensured normalcy returned to these CALL premiums. Meanwhile, the PUT premiums are not elevated as well, so we do not expect a major breakout or breakdown soon.
On the higher timeframe, the flag pattern seems to have played out as per script. Ideally, we should expect the leg2 to start soon, but the premiums are not indicative. Also, we have the monthly expiry this week and things could get a bit volatile before we find a clear trend. We wish to stay bullish and as soon as the 22051 support gets broken - we wish to change our stance to neutral. If 21913 is getting broken in 1 to 2 days - we would even go bearish as the flag pattern will be totally negated.
63mts chart
Recap from yesterday: “We are not suggesting that all “roads lead to Rome theory” i.e. everything is bullish, but the probability of things going up seems higher than cutting through the supports of 22051 & 21913. You know us, the moment the supports are broken, we will exit the bullish position at a loss and go neutral.”
4mts chart
Almost all the sectors looked weak today, NiftyIT was the main villain - at a point, it was like 1.7% down. The energy sector ended the day with some meaningful gains, excluding that then everything was either in RED or flat. Interestingly, Nifty did not touch or break the 22051 support level today and due to that we do not think a status change is required.
The near ATM CALLs side had exorbitant premiums last week, most analysts would have even extrapolated to have a 22500+ close this expiry. Today’s price action ensured normalcy returned to these CALL premiums. Meanwhile, the PUT premiums are not elevated as well, so we do not expect a major breakout or breakdown soon.
On the higher timeframe, the flag pattern seems to have played out as per script. Ideally, we should expect the leg2 to start soon, but the premiums are not indicative. Also, we have the monthly expiry this week and things could get a bit volatile before we find a clear trend. We wish to stay bullish and as soon as the 22051 support gets broken - we wish to change our stance to neutral. If 21913 is getting broken in 1 to 2 days - we would even go bearish as the flag pattern will be totally negated.
63mts chart
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