MRK Mark

24 may

There was a time when Nen Ideas were 110% purely experimental. Back to the old school drawing board thinking about the potential futures for this stock and ignoring the fact that the future might not be predictable in a rational Universe of Unknown Variables and Undetermined events.

I look at the current price formation and ask 3 questions.
1. Is this a corrective construct that will lead to the popping of the price on the up?
2. Will we still be in a correction formation in the coming trading days, that can see the unfolding of a bearish wave before things settle into a more clear picture?
3. Do this prediction attempts are even relevant? Considering any time some big unforseen news can just shake the markets out of any detectable pattern?

I have designed some elements in this project as milestones or anchor points not reference points to see how random they are, or if the stock price evolution might be random or if the words that I type are actually almost random, considering there is no difference between the way that I write or the way that I draw something on TW.

Last 2 waves are the ones I am more interested in. A potential bull run after Earnings, maybe if it reaches the bottom plank, or a possible correction started from the marked price level above...

I have no clue if Merck will pop one way or another out of the current formation which looks highly intriguing, but something might be boiling in preparation for some resolution of the current picture (the squeezed price between the trend line and the top resistance arc zone.

This is experimental.

28 may

Nota

Popped out eventually. Will there be a correction towards the white marked price level? Or will it continue towards the green zone? The red rectangle could become a relevant milestone.

3 jun

Nota

The Merck is back and looks ready to break the blue zone after encountering resistance here, right at the start of the red time interval. Could this be the start of a bull run or will it start consolidating below the white marked price level before deciding where it slides?

10 jun

Nota

Hit on the icon, but now quite a retest of the trendline. Still, the scenario of a potential bearish wave starting near this position can not be discarded.

13 jun

Nota

Retest of the trendline and a drop, almost touching the second icon. If the white level doesn't hold we might see another icon being hit.

20 jun

Nota

Interesting development with the support found at the blue rectangle. I might be wrong on this one but can't quite brush the bearish prospect of further decrease eventually. Nevertheless, because of the potential potency of such a rebound from the blue zone, all shorts initiated near the question mark should probably be protected with an exit strategy near or at break even in case the bulls are back in it.

26 jun

Nota

Looks like a retest of the trendline but we might not see amplified bearish sentiment going forward. The low around 122.8 right before the red marked time zone from where the bullish move started, could prove to be eventually the inflection that triggered the climb to the white marked 139.

27 jun

Nota

Hit on the third icon.

1 jul

Nota

Touchdown in the red zone (rectangle) with the recent low not far from the green level. A very nasty drop, but even so, the bullish setup still holds if it starts finding support near 118 and especially with a surprise good earnings report.

9 jul

Nota

This could be a case of finding support above the red rectangle, and from this position without any big surprises the chances are high for a hit on the 4th icon in a row (which is highly unusual for now even from nen projects). If the dotted path is still relevant, there could be a case for another push attempt at least towards 129.5, a level which could be tricky because if earnings report surprises on the upside, we might not get to see the potential buying opportunity around 120 where the lowest dot icon stands. somewhere in September.
I should say we are probably more likely to see the price deviating from this dotted path, but at the same keeping my mind and expectations open, trying to take it day by day and see what the price action might suggest.
Ending with the beginning of the update: if the red rectangle zone holds, it could rebound the price just like the blue did.

11 jul

Nota

Not quite a hit on the 4th icon but a decent rebound from the red rectangle. Next up is the white marked price level to see if it holds as potential resistance.

16 jul

Nota

Resistance met and a rebound from the white marked price level. Not sure if there could be a double tap on this level where the next icon is positioned or if the current potential bearish wave is actually the projected one highlighted with the green arrow but shifted earlier in time. Even if the price touches the corner of the red rectangle and finds a little bit of support there, it could still continue to descend towards the green eventually unless earnings report changes the overall picture for this stock.

2 ago

Nota

Candlestick shadow at the 5th icon and a collapse. Instead of looking for potential support at the green now we are watching if it holds as resistance asking for a potential retest...