ISM Manufacturing index contraction

1 oct 2019

Drop below 50 = economic contraction. What's concerning is market has been making all-time highs while ISM has been going down. I interpret that as a fundamental problem and as a friend once told me, "Fundamentals are king...eventually".

1 oct 2019

Nota

this chart has an overlay of the s&p (circles). Messy chart but vertical white lines are when we crossed below. 2015-16 was a weird situation where we recessed and then soared back up. I don't think we'll see that again. Just like 1998, it recessed and then went back up before the tech bubble crash. I am of the opinion that we correct this time

3 feb 2020

Nota

ISM pmi came in more bullish than expected today but a similar bounce happened in june 2008 before the nasty drop. I'm leaning more toward this type of event than another recovery