India VIX

26 dic 2019

Almost every year India VIX tends to test the lower end of its range and reverses sharply in JAN. A trigger for this usually is the Annual Budget (Vix rising as a lead up to the event). It appears that the same scenario might be repeated in 2020. However, this time we have a global trigger as well which could fuel the rise in VIX (as and when it happens) Gold & Silver breakout and USD/INR which is very close to a breakout above 70.40 (in this case it should be noted that US$ is so far fairly muted against major currencies).
We could initially see the Standard Deviation variation between Equity > Commodities / Currency expand. As a result, firstly the range will get broader, secondly price movement/reaction will be faster. Hence, option writing as Jan series gets into momentum might not be a safe hedge as it has appeared in NOV-DEC. Positional traders might get caught on the wrong side time and again as Swing traders are going to love the series

3 feb 2020

Nota

VIX KI GOLI
From 10.50 to 18 - Iran / Corona Virus / Budget / Impeachment
Expecting it to calm down now at least till 14. However, if it sustains above 17 then next stop is 20

9 mar 2020

Nota

VIX at 28. The move from 17 to 28 has happened in a mere 6 sessions. Next resistance 30.50. The last time it rallied till here was in May 2014. Prior to that Aug 2013