Copper appears to have finished a perfect ABC correction that has terminated at precisely the 0.618 Fibonacci level. According to the Elliott wave model, copper should begin another five-wave move up of primary degree that eventually surpasses its March high.
There is one reason to be cautious, however. Copper still has bearish seasonality until August 15. If you bought copper on July 22 and sold copper on August 15 every year for the past ten years, you would have lost money for eight years (80%).
In general, I trust the Elliott wave model more than I trust seasonality but a historical win rate of only 20% is nothing to joke about. The current Elliott count will be invalidated if prices decline below the July 15 low of 3.1315. Risk should be tight, and the trade should be abandoned if prices drop below this level.
There is one reason to be cautious, however. Copper still has bearish seasonality until August 15. If you bought copper on July 22 and sold copper on August 15 every year for the past ten years, you would have lost money for eight years (80%).
In general, I trust the Elliott wave model more than I trust seasonality but a historical win rate of only 20% is nothing to joke about. The current Elliott count will be invalidated if prices decline below the July 15 low of 3.1315. Risk should be tight, and the trade should be abandoned if prices drop below this level.
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Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones que ofrecemos, no implican ni constituyen un asesoramiento financiero, ni de inversión, trading o cualquier otro tipo de consejo o recomendación emitida o respaldada por TradingView. Puede obtener información adicional en las Condiciones de uso.