This is post 10 on the Eurodollar and the effect on the market. This is a monumental event. The eurodollar is the largest and most important market that one can understand to begin to make conclusions on all other markets. When it moves sideways then it is basically a "new normal" and things can move as we think they should when it comes to inflation, interest rates (real and nominal of course) and so on. When the eurodollar begins to impulse either up or down we find ourselves in a complete different environment. We had the a crisis as the "plumbing" of the financial/banks got clogged up earlier this year and I believe that was due to moves in the eurodollar. Not becauce I have access to any data from inside the banks but because I don't think most bankers have the vision to understand the eurodollar market and how it forces the hands of the central bankers. Economist and conspiracy theorist alike, please comment on that.
I have been using and updating this chart for over a year. It is one of the main reasons I have been named a perma-bear and it is a very real cause of me being deeply unable to hold my longs for too long. We had a bump and run bottom, one of the most reliable formations in all of technical analysis and we see that it performed beautifully. The only Bump and Run Bottom that comes anywhere near as close to the technical beauty of this bottom is the one that formed on bitcoin.
The targets on the main chart are pretty simple. The purple target cones from the Hight of the top in March to the automatic reaction of the rejection at the BARR target (the Hight of the lead in trend line) added to the neckline of what appears to be an ascending triangle with the smallest of second and third lows.
That would take us to negative interest rates on the Eurodollar and therefor the LIBOR, or London Interbank Offer Rate. The question remains who is the dog, who is the tail, and who wags who. A very complicated metaphor for my belief that the the various interest rates of the world are controlled more by the free market interactions in the Eurodollar than most central banks chairs (mouthpieces) would publicly admit.
It appears that this is a clear flagpole and so I have shown the full performance target on the flagpole. I would not be surprised if we get 60-70% performance of this flagpole or even some over-performance on the candle wick. This leads to lots of questions of economic fundamentals with the free market dictating negative interest rates, with inflation, and the response of the central banks. Once again, Economist and conspiracy theorist alike, please comment on that.
My main hypothesis is that during any impulsive uptrend in the eurodollar futures we will see damn near every other market take a stropping to the downside. Equities, Anti-fiats, all will be slammed by the credit crunch or new clog in the market.
My secondary hypothesis is that Consolidation 3 will cause anti-fiats to go absolutely crazy and explode to the upside. Negative interest rates and inflation should practically guarantee that, as much as one can guarantee anything in this world
Final hypothesis: The wedge shown below will ultimately perform. It would be very very painful for the world if it performs to the upside. Even more so if then it snaps to the downside. This would be in keeping for the Maximum Pain Theory, which is often reserved for options trading but appears to be very real, given all the bites it has taken out of me in other non-option markets.
Even more than normal comments would be greatly appreciated. We should find out very shortly, days to weeks, if I am right. It will require the eurodollar to continue to impulse upward after this break out. Please see the linked ideas for top ideas in this series. The last idea is when I called the bottom of the SPX dump.
I have been using and updating this chart for over a year. It is one of the main reasons I have been named a perma-bear and it is a very real cause of me being deeply unable to hold my longs for too long. We had a bump and run bottom, one of the most reliable formations in all of technical analysis and we see that it performed beautifully. The only Bump and Run Bottom that comes anywhere near as close to the technical beauty of this bottom is the one that formed on bitcoin.
The targets on the main chart are pretty simple. The purple target cones from the Hight of the top in March to the automatic reaction of the rejection at the BARR target (the Hight of the lead in trend line) added to the neckline of what appears to be an ascending triangle with the smallest of second and third lows.
That would take us to negative interest rates on the Eurodollar and therefor the LIBOR, or London Interbank Offer Rate. The question remains who is the dog, who is the tail, and who wags who. A very complicated metaphor for my belief that the the various interest rates of the world are controlled more by the free market interactions in the Eurodollar than most central banks chairs (mouthpieces) would publicly admit.
It appears that this is a clear flagpole and so I have shown the full performance target on the flagpole. I would not be surprised if we get 60-70% performance of this flagpole or even some over-performance on the candle wick. This leads to lots of questions of economic fundamentals with the free market dictating negative interest rates, with inflation, and the response of the central banks. Once again, Economist and conspiracy theorist alike, please comment on that.
My main hypothesis is that during any impulsive uptrend in the eurodollar futures we will see damn near every other market take a stropping to the downside. Equities, Anti-fiats, all will be slammed by the credit crunch or new clog in the market.
My secondary hypothesis is that Consolidation 3 will cause anti-fiats to go absolutely crazy and explode to the upside. Negative interest rates and inflation should practically guarantee that, as much as one can guarantee anything in this world
Final hypothesis: The wedge shown below will ultimately perform. It would be very very painful for the world if it performs to the upside. Even more so if then it snaps to the downside. This would be in keeping for the Maximum Pain Theory, which is often reserved for options trading but appears to be very real, given all the bites it has taken out of me in other non-option markets.
Even more than normal comments would be greatly appreciated. We should find out very shortly, days to weeks, if I am right. It will require the eurodollar to continue to impulse upward after this break out. Please see the linked ideas for top ideas in this series. The last idea is when I called the bottom of the SPX dump.
And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?
~Nathan Explosion
~Nathan Explosion
