Long GDXJ (Alternative view from previous analysis)
One week passed, GDXJ starting to form a bottoming signal (rising volume and bottom wick). With the equity market (SPY) so weak, gold may have the chance to breakout.
If GDXJ breaks above the triangle trend line, that will be a false breakdown. That we should expect a huge rally ~20-30% from current level.
The only risk is yield is about to explode, so if gold is negatively correlated to yield, this is unlikely to happen.
Trade plan: wait til the break above trendline to initiate long position. Otherwise, I am still short biased.
If GDXJ breaks above the triangle trend line, that will be a false breakdown. That we should expect a huge rally ~20-30% from current level.
The only risk is yield is about to explode, so if gold is negatively correlated to yield, this is unlikely to happen.
Trade plan: wait til the break above trendline to initiate long position. Otherwise, I am still short biased.
