Is it a time to short GBP/USD, I wonder?

Looking at the 1hr chart, I see the 20 EMA supporting the move up for the last 2 days. Also, there's the 61.8% fib level (1.6167) from the move down from 28.04.2011 to 13.01.2012 holding the move up on the 1hr chart today. If I see an hourly candle closed below 1.61441 and 20 EMA at the same time, we can probably go down and test 1.6119 - 50 EMA or even lower to 1.6088 (200 EMA). I prefer to see the 1hr candle closes below the 20EMA, go back test it, so that I can open a short from around 1.6144 with tp1 = 1.6120 and tp 2 1.6090. sl at 1.6160