Sell GBPUSD 1.3100 targeting new lows below 1.28

19 jul 2016

Sterling remains weak and has just broken the neckline of a bearish head & shoulders formation on the 4 hour chart.

Caution is advised (see my linked post) with regards to the risk of a short squeeze perpetuated by UK labour and retail sales data this week.

It would be prudent to operate a stop on-close rather than at-level given the likely volatility around data releases. Aiming for approximately 1.28 (-300 away) with a stop no higher than 1.32 (+100 away)

A negative weekly/daily bias remains below 1.3317, with this short term formation on a 4 hour interval also negative.

20 jul 2016

Operación cerrada manualmente

UK Inflation came in higher than expected, reduces likelihood of a rate cut next month by the BoE.

If so, looks like the UK is heading down the path of stagflation (low economic growth and rising prices). Nightmare scenario for policy makers.

Return to the longer and intermediate weekly / daily trends for GBP unless we see strong selling later today with the 4H H&S setup preserved (not invalidated by a surge above the neckline).