13/10/25 Can Bears Create FT Selling or Retest High Instead?

1. Friday’s candlestick (Oct 10) was an outside bear bar closing in its lower half with prominent tails.
   
2. In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bulls can create another strong bull bar or if the bears are able to create a bear bar instead.
   
3. The market traded higher but lacked follow-through buying and reversed into a bear bar. The weekly candlestick closed with a prominent tail above.
   
4. The bulls got a retest near the August high.
   
5. They want a breakout above the August high, followed by a resumption of the trend.
   
6. They must create a strong breakout above the August high, accompanied by follow-through buying, to increase the odds of the market trading higher.
   
7. If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
   
8. The bears see the current move as a buy vacuum retest of the August high.
   
9. They want a reversal from a double top bear flag (Aug 19 and Oct 10), as well as a larger double top bear flag with the February high.
   
10. The bears must create consecutive bear bars to increase the odds of a deeper pullback.
    
11. If the market trades higher, they want a failed breakout above the August high.
    
12. Production: fSPPOMA's first 5 days increased up 12%.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy remains decent.
    
14. Export: Oct up 9% for the first 10 days as per ITS.
    
15. For today (Monday, Oct 13), traders will see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar, even if it is only a bear doji.
    
16. Or will the bears be able to completely reverse the Friday pullback instead?
    

Andrew