29/7/25 Pullback Underway, Minor or Something More?

1. Monday’s candlestick (Jul 28) was a bear doji bar closing around the middle of its range with prominent tails.
   
2. In our last report, we stated traders would see if the bears could create follow-through selling, or if the pullback phase would be weak and sideways instead.
   
3. The market traded slightly lower. The bears got some follow-through selling, albeit still weak.
   
4. The bulls want a retest of the April high.
   
5. They want any pullback to lack follow-through selling, similar to the last few pullbacks (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22).
   
6. If there is a deeper pullback lasting more than a week, they want it to be shallow (overlapping candlesticks, bull bars and long tails below candlesticks).
   
7. They want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
   
8. They want another strong leg up to form the wedge pattern, with the first two legs being Jun 20 and July 24.
   
9. The bears want a reversal from a large wedge pattern (May 15, Jun 20, and Jul 24) and an embedded wedge (Jul 14, Jul 18, and Jul 24). They want a major lower high vs the April high.
   
10. Previously, the bears were unable to create follow-through selling in the last four selloff attempts (July 7, July 11, July 15, and July 22).
    
11. They need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows and trading below the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control.
    
12. Production for July is expected to be around the same level as June or slightly higher. August may be flat or down.
    
13. Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently.
    
14. Export: Down 10% in the first 25 days.
    
15. So far, the buying pressure is slightly stronger than the selling pressure, but not in an overwhelming way yet (no strong consecutive bull bars closing near their highs).
    
16. However, the move up has lasted a long time. The market may have to form a pullback before it moves higher again.
    
17. The pullback phase could be underway.
    
18. Traders will assess the strength of the pullback to determine whether it will be a minor correction or something more significant.
    
19. The bears need to create follow-through selling to show they are back in control, something they couldn't do in the last few pullbacks (July 7, July 11, July 15, and Jul 22).
    
20. For tomorrow (Tuesday, July 29), traders will see if the bears can create follow-through selling.
    
21. Or will the pullback phase be weak and sideways, holding above or around the 20-day EMA instead?
    

Andrew